气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Is Enhanced Predictability of the Amundsen Sea Low in Subseasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts Linked to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling?

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL089700
	Is Enhanced Predictability of the Amundsen Sea Low in Subseasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts Linked to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling?
	Wang S.; Liu J.; Cheng X.; Kerzenmacher T.; Braesicke P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:18
英文摘要	The Amundsen Sea low (ASL) is one of the key components of the Antarctic surface climate. Here, we assess the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictive skill of the ASL in two state-of-the-art forecasting systems based on the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC). It is found that the ASL predictability during austral spring is higher than in the other seasons with lead times ranging from 1 to 4 weeks. The spring ASL predictability has an ACC of about 0.6 with lead times of 1–2 weeks and about 0.44 with lead times of 3–4 weeks. The enhanced ASL predictability during austral spring is mainly due to the strengthening of stratosphere-troposphere coupling, coincident with a weakened stratospheric polar night jet and increased wave-mean flow interactions in the stratosphere. This study demonstrates that the stratosphere-troposphere coupling provides an important source of predictability for the Antarctic surface weather and climate on S2S timescale. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Earth sciences; Geophysics; Amundsen Sea; Anomaly correlations; Austral spring; Forecasting system; Polar-night jet; Stratosphere-troposphere coupling; Surface climate; Wave-mean-flow interaction; Troposphere; forecasting method; hindcasting; prediction; seasonal variation; spring (season); stratosphere-troposphere interaction; timescale; Amundsen Sea; Southern Ocean
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169759
作者单位	School of Geospatial Engineering and Science, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China; Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY, United States; Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; University Corporation for Polar Research, Zhuhai, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang S.,Liu J.,Cheng X.,et al. Is Enhanced Predictability of the Amundsen Sea Low in Subseasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts Linked to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling?[J],2020,47(18).
APA	Wang S.,Liu J.,Cheng X.,Kerzenmacher T.,&Braesicke P..(2020).Is Enhanced Predictability of the Amundsen Sea Low in Subseasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts Linked to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling?.Geophysical Research Letters,47(18).
MLA	Wang S.,et al."Is Enhanced Predictability of the Amundsen Sea Low in Subseasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts Linked to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling?".Geophysical Research Letters 47.18(2020).