气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Model Forecast Error Correction Based on the Local Dynamical Analog Method: An Example Application to the ENSO Forecast by an Intermediate Coupled Model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL088986
	Model Forecast Error Correction Based on the Local Dynamical Analog Method: An Example Application to the ENSO Forecast by an Intermediate Coupled Model
	Hou Z.; Zuo B.; Zhang S.; Huang F.; Ding R.; Duan W.; Li J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:19
英文摘要	Numerical forecasts always have associated errors. Analog correction methods combine numerical simulations with statistical analyses to reduce model forecast errors. However, identifying appropriate analogs remains a challenging task. Here, we use the Local Dynamical Analog (LDA) method to locate analogs and correct model forecast errors. As an example, an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) intermediate coupled model forecast error correction experiment confirms that the LDA method locates high quality analogs of states of interest and improves the model forecast performance, which is due to the initial and evolution information included in the LDA method. In addition, the LDA method can be applied using a scalar time series, which reduces the complexity of the dynamical system. The LDA method is a promising method to locate dynamic analogs and can be applied to existing numerical models and forecast results. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Climatology; Dynamical systems; Error correction; Numerical methods; Numerical models; Analog methods; Correct models; Correction method; ENSO forecast; Intermediate coupled model; Model forecasts; Scalar time series; Southern oscillation; Forecasting; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; error correction; experimental study; forecasting method; information management; numerical model; statistical application
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169636
作者单位	Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES)/Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate, Pilot Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM), Qingdao, China; International Laboratory for High-Resolution Earth System Model and Prediction (iHESP), College Station, TX, United States; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hou Z.,Zuo B.,Zhang S.,et al. Model Forecast Error Correction Based on the Local Dynamical Analog Method: An Example Application to the ENSO Forecast by an Intermediate Coupled Model[J],2020,47(19).
APA	Hou Z..,Zuo B..,Zhang S..,Huang F..,Ding R..,...&Li J..(2020).Model Forecast Error Correction Based on the Local Dynamical Analog Method: An Example Application to the ENSO Forecast by an Intermediate Coupled Model.Geophysical Research Letters,47(19).
MLA	Hou Z.,et al."Model Forecast Error Correction Based on the Local Dynamical Analog Method: An Example Application to the ENSO Forecast by an Intermediate Coupled Model".Geophysical Research Letters 47.19(2020).