气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected Increases in Monthly Midlatitude Summertime Temperature Variance Over Land Are Driven by Local Thermodynamics

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL090197
	Projected Increases in Monthly Midlatitude Summertime Temperature Variance Over Land Are Driven by Local Thermodynamics
	Vargas Zeppetello L.R.; Battisti D.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:19
英文摘要	The increasing frequency of very high temperatures driven by global warming has motivated growing interest in how the probability distribution of summertime temperatures will evolve in the future. Climate models forced by increasing CO2 simulate increasing monthly-averaged temperature variance across the midlatitudes. In this study we present evidence that these projections are credible and driven primarily by the magnitude of local warming. A first-principles analytic theory reproduces the increased midlatitude summertime temperature variance in climate models extremely well by considering only the warming-induced change in the climatological vapor pressure deficit. The impacts of local warming on saturation specific and relative humidity are shown to have roughly equal contributions to increases in summertime temperature variance. The vegetation response to increasing CO2 is found to be an important contributor to the uncertainty in modeled temperature variance change, highlighting the role of plants in shaping the summertime temperature distribution. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Carbon dioxide; Climate models; Global warming; Probability distributions; Vegetation; Analytic theory; First principles; High temperature; Midlatitudes; Temperature variance; Vapor pressure deficit; Vegetation response; Temperature; climate modeling; global warming; high temperature; midlatitude environment; relative humidity; summer; temperature anomaly; thermodynamics; vapor pressure
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169633
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vargas Zeppetello L.R.,Battisti D.S.. Projected Increases in Monthly Midlatitude Summertime Temperature Variance Over Land Are Driven by Local Thermodynamics[J],2020,47(19).
APA	Vargas Zeppetello L.R.,&Battisti D.S..(2020).Projected Increases in Monthly Midlatitude Summertime Temperature Variance Over Land Are Driven by Local Thermodynamics.Geophysical Research Letters,47(19).
MLA	Vargas Zeppetello L.R.,et al."Projected Increases in Monthly Midlatitude Summertime Temperature Variance Over Land Are Driven by Local Thermodynamics".Geophysical Research Letters 47.19(2020).