气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Poleward Shift of Northern Subtropics in Winter: Time of Emergence of Zonal Versus Regional Signals

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL089325
	Poleward Shift of Northern Subtropics in Winter: Time of Emergence of Zonal Versus Regional Signals
	D'Agostino R.; Scambiati A.L.; Jungclaus J.; Lionello P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:19
英文摘要	The Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes will be exposed to hydroclimatic risk in next coming decades because the subtropical expansion. However, it is not clear when the anthropogenic signal will emerge from the internal climate variability. For this purpose, we investigate the time of emergence (ToE) of the hemispheric and regional shift of northern subtropical margins in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. For several indicators, the ToE of the poleward shift of Northern subtropical margin will not occur by the end of the 21st century, neither at regional nor at hemispheric scale. The exceptions are the Mediterranean/Middle East and, to a lesser degree, Western Pacific, where the ToE would occur earlier. According to our results, given the fundamental role played by internal variability, trends of Northern Hemisphere subtropical poleward shift that have been identified over last decades in reanalyses cannot be considered as robust signals of anthropogenic climate change. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Climate change; Anthropogenic climate changes; Anthropogenic signals; Internal climate variability; Internal variability; Max Planck Institute; Northern Hemispheres; Robust signals; Western Pacific; Tropics; climate change; climate variation; ensemble forecasting; hydrometeorology; midlatitude environment; Northern Hemisphere; subtropical region; winter; Middle East; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (West)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169612
作者单位	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; DiSTBA, University of Salento, Lecce, Italy; Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, CMCC, Lecce, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	D'Agostino R.,Scambiati A.L.,Jungclaus J.,et al. Poleward Shift of Northern Subtropics in Winter: Time of Emergence of Zonal Versus Regional Signals[J],2020,47(19).
APA	D'Agostino R.,Scambiati A.L.,Jungclaus J.,&Lionello P..(2020).Poleward Shift of Northern Subtropics in Winter: Time of Emergence of Zonal Versus Regional Signals.Geophysical Research Letters,47(19).
MLA	D'Agostino R.,et al."Poleward Shift of Northern Subtropics in Winter: Time of Emergence of Zonal Versus Regional Signals".Geophysical Research Letters 47.19(2020).