气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Detectability of an AMOC Decline in Current and Projected Climate Changes

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL089974
	Detectability of an AMOC Decline in Current and Projected Climate Changes
	Lobelle D.; Beaulieu C.; Livina V.; Sévellec F.; Frajka-Williams E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:20
英文摘要	Determining whether the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)'s transport is in decline is challenging due to the short duration of continuous observations. To estimate how many years are needed to detect a decline, we conduct a simulation study using synthetic data that mimics an AMOC time series. The time series' characteristics are reproduced using the trend, variance, and autocorrelation coefficient of the AMOC strength at 26.5°N from 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models under the RCP8.5 future scenario, and from RAPID observations (2004–2018). Our results suggest that the 14-year RAPID length has just entered the lower limits of the trend's “detection window” based on synthetic data generated using CMIP5 trends and variability (14–42 years; median (Formula presented.) 24 years), but twice the length is required for detectability based on RAPID variability (29–67 years; median (Formula presented.) 43 years). The annual RAPID trend is currently not statistically significant (−0.11 Sv yr−1, p > 0.05). © 2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate models; Time series; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations; Autocorrelation coefficient; Continuous observation; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Detection windows; Short durations; Simulation studies; Synthetic data; Oceanography; air-sea interaction; autocorrelation; climate change; climate prediction; detection method; meridional circulation; observational method; time series analysis; Atlantic Ocean
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169583
作者单位	Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; National Physical Laboratory, Teddington, United Kingdom; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Ocean Sciences Department, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States; Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale, Univ-Brest CNRS IRD Ifremer, Brest, France; National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lobelle D.,Beaulieu C.,Livina V.,et al. Detectability of an AMOC Decline in Current and Projected Climate Changes[J],2020,47(20).
APA	Lobelle D.,Beaulieu C.,Livina V.,Sévellec F.,&Frajka-Williams E..(2020).Detectability of an AMOC Decline in Current and Projected Climate Changes.Geophysical Research Letters,47(20).
MLA	Lobelle D.,et al."Detectability of an AMOC Decline in Current and Projected Climate Changes".Geophysical Research Letters 47.20(2020).