气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Intraseasonal Predictions for the South American Rainfall Dipole

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL089985
	Intraseasonal Predictions for the South American Rainfall Dipole
	Díaz N.; Barreiro M.; Rubido N.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:21
英文摘要	The South American rainfall Dipole (SAD) is a renowned spatial structure present in the austral summer as part of the South American monsoon system. SAD phases have been related with extreme precipitations and severe droughts across South America, but are yet to be predicted. Here, we reveal two robust and reliable intraseasonal windows in the accumulated SAD index where we can forecast its quantile-state between 5 to 15 and 60 to 70 days in advance (99% significance level). These windows are insensitive to variations in the pole's size and accumulation window, and results are consistent across different quantiles states (median, tercile, and quartile). Our method, which is based on analyzing the lagged mutual information between future and present states, could be used in the development of early warnings for extreme rainfall events. Moreover, it is unrestricted to the present analysis, being applicable to other stationary signals where a forecast is missing. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Rain; Austral summers; Extreme precipitation; Extreme rainfall; Intra-seasonal; Mutual informations; Significance levels; Spatial structure; Stationary signal; Forecasting; drought; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; spatiotemporal analysis; summer; South America
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169491
作者单位	Instituto de Física de Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay; Aberdeen Biomedical Imaging Centre, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom; Institute for Complex Systems and Mathematical Biology, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Díaz N.,Barreiro M.,Rubido N.. Intraseasonal Predictions for the South American Rainfall Dipole[J],2020,47(21).
APA	Díaz N.,Barreiro M.,&Rubido N..(2020).Intraseasonal Predictions for the South American Rainfall Dipole.Geophysical Research Letters,47(21).
MLA	Díaz N.,et al."Intraseasonal Predictions for the South American Rainfall Dipole".Geophysical Research Letters 47.21(2020).