气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Enhanced Coastal Shoreline Modeling Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter to Include Nonstationarity in Future Wave Climates

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL090724
	Enhanced Coastal Shoreline Modeling Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter to Include Nonstationarity in Future Wave Climates
	Ibaceta R.; Splinter K.D.; Harley M.D.; Turner I.L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:22
英文摘要	A novel approach to improve seasonal to interannual sandy shoreline predictions is presented, whereby model-free parameters can vary in time, adjusting to potential nonstationarity in the underlying model forcing. This is achieved by adopting a suitable data assimilation technique (dual state-parameter ensemble Kalman filter) within the established shoreline evolution model ShoreFor. The method is first tested and evaluated using synthetic scenarios, specifically designed to emulate a broad range of natural sandy shoreline behavior. This approach is then applied to a real-world shoreline data set, revealing that time-varying model-free parameters are linked through physical processes to changing characteristics of the wave forcing. Greater accuracy of shoreline predictions is achieved, compared to existing stationary modeling approaches. It is anticipated that the wider application of this method can improve our understanding and prediction of future beach erosion patterns and trends in a changing wave climate. © 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Forecasting; Slip forming; Data assimilation techniques; Ensemble Kalman Filter; Non-stationarities; Physical process; Shoreline evolutions; Shoreline modeling; Stationary models; Time-varying models; Kalman filters; beach erosion; coastal evolution; coastal zone; data assimilation; ensemble forecasting; Kalman filter; sandy soil; wave climate; wave force
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169444
作者单位	Water Research Laboratory, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney, Manly Vale, NSW, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ibaceta R.,Splinter K.D.,Harley M.D.,et al. Enhanced Coastal Shoreline Modeling Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter to Include Nonstationarity in Future Wave Climates[J],2020,47(22).
APA	Ibaceta R.,Splinter K.D.,Harley M.D.,&Turner I.L..(2020).Enhanced Coastal Shoreline Modeling Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter to Include Nonstationarity in Future Wave Climates.Geophysical Research Letters,47(22).
MLA	Ibaceta R.,et al."Enhanced Coastal Shoreline Modeling Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter to Include Nonstationarity in Future Wave Climates".Geophysical Research Letters 47.22(2020).