气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying Structural Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Data Assimilation With an Application to the Last Millennium

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL090485
	Quantifying Structural Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Data Assimilation With an Application to the Last Millennium
	Amrhein D.E.; Hakim G.J.; Parsons L.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:22
英文摘要	Paleoclimate reconstruction relies on estimates of spatiotemporal relationships among climate quantities to interpolate between proxy data. This work quantifies how structural uncertainties in those relationships translate to uncertainties in reconstructions of past climate. We develop and apply a data assimilation uncertainty quantification approach to paleoclimate networks and observational uncertainties representative of data for the last millennium. We find that structural uncertainties arising from uncertain spatial covariance relationships typically contribute 10% of the total uncertainty in reconstructed temperature variability at small (∼200 km), continental, and hemispheric length scales, with larger errors (50% or larger) in regions where long-range climate covariances are least certain. These structural uncertainties contribute far more to errors in uncertainty quantification, sometimes by a factor of 5 or higher. Accounting for and reducing uncertainties in climate model dynamics and resulting covariance relationships will improve paleoclimate reconstruction accuracy. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Uncertainty analysis; Data assimilation; Paleoclimate reconstruction; Spatial covariance; Spatio-temporal relationships; Structural uncertainty; Temperature variability; Total uncertainties; Uncertainty quantifications; Climate models; climate modeling; data assimilation; paleoclimate; quantitative analysis; reconstruction; spatial variation; tectonic reconstruction; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169411
作者单位	National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; University of Washington Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Amrhein D.E.,Hakim G.J.,Parsons L.A.. Quantifying Structural Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Data Assimilation With an Application to the Last Millennium[J],2020,47(22).
APA	Amrhein D.E.,Hakim G.J.,&Parsons L.A..(2020).Quantifying Structural Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Data Assimilation With an Application to the Last Millennium.Geophysical Research Letters,47(22).
MLA	Amrhein D.E.,et al."Quantifying Structural Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Data Assimilation With an Application to the Last Millennium".Geophysical Research Letters 47.22(2020).