气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential Precipitation Predictability Decreases Under Future Warming

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL090798
	Potential Precipitation Predictability Decreases Under Future Warming
	Xu L.; Zhang C.; Chen N.; Moradkhani H.; Chu P.-S.; Zhang X.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:22
英文摘要	Precipitation predictability is likely to decrease with water cycle intensification under global warming, yet how much it will change spatiotemporally is unclear. We quantify the precipitation predictability changes under future warming using model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The global-averaged potential precipitation predictability (PPP) is likely to decrease 0.3% per 1°C increase of global sea surface temperature (SST), with a decrease of 0.8% and 0.1% in tropical and extratropical regions, respectively, under future warming scenarios. The PPP changes are divergent among different models with considerable uncertainty. The estimated declining PPP is closely related to the increase of SST and the decrease of potential SST predictability based on a statistical regression analysis. These results unravel the changing pattern of precipitation predictability under future warming. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Global warming; Surface waters; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Extratropical; Model simulation; Sea surface temperature (SST); Statistical regression analysis; Water cycle; Oceanography; climate modeling; CMIP; extratropical environment; global warming; hydrological cycle; precipitation assessment; prediction; sea surface temperature
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169406
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping, and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China; Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States; Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Collaborative Innovation Center of Geospatial Technology, Wuhan, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu L.,Zhang C.,Chen N.,et al. Potential Precipitation Predictability Decreases Under Future Warming[J],2020,47(22).
APA	Xu L.,Zhang C.,Chen N.,Moradkhani H.,Chu P.-S.,&Zhang X..(2020).Potential Precipitation Predictability Decreases Under Future Warming.Geophysical Research Letters,47(22).
MLA	Xu L.,et al."Potential Precipitation Predictability Decreases Under Future Warming".Geophysical Research Letters 47.22(2020).