气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL090451
	Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter
	Sun L.; Perlwitz J.; Richter J.H.; Hoerling M.P.; Hurrell J.W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:22
英文摘要	Weeks 3–6 averaged winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) predictive skill in a state-of-the-art coupled climate prediction system is attributed to two principle sources: upper and lower boundary conditions linked to the stratosphere and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively. A 20-member ensemble of 45-day reforecasts over 1999–2015 is utilized, together with uninitialized simulations with the atmospheric component of the prediction system forced with observed radiative forcing and lower boundary conditions. NAO forecast skill for lead times out to 6 weeks is higher following extreme stratospheric polar vortex conditions (weak and strong vortex events) compared to neutral states. Enhanced weeks 3–6 NAO predictive skill for weak vortex events results primarily from stratospheric downward coupling to the troposphere, while enhanced skill for strong vortex events can be partly attributed to lower boundary forcing related to the ENSO phenomenon. Implications for forecast system development and improvement are discussed. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Atmospheric radiation; Boundary conditions; Forecasting; Vortex flow; Atmospheric components; Climate prediction; Lower boundary conditions; Prediction systems; Radiative forcings; Southern oscillation; Stratospheric polar vortex; Winter North Atlantic Oscillation; Climatology; boundary condition; climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation; polar vortex; prediction; radiative forcing; stratosphere; troposphere; winter
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169404
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun L.,Perlwitz J.,Richter J.H.,et al. Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter[J],2020,47(22).
APA	Sun L.,Perlwitz J.,Richter J.H.,Hoerling M.P.,&Hurrell J.W..(2020).Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter.Geophysical Research Letters,47(22).
MLA	Sun L.,et al."Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter".Geophysical Research Letters 47.22(2020).