气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying Contributions of Internal Variability and External Forcing to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Since 1870

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL089504
	Quantifying Contributions of Internal Variability and External Forcing to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Since 1870
	Qin M.; Dai A.; Hua W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:22
英文摘要	Identifying the mechanisms behind the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is crucial for understanding and predicting decadal climate change. However, what is behind the AMV is still debated. A key issue is the relative role of internal variability (IV) and external forcing in causing the AMV. By analyzing observations and a large number of climate model simulations, here we show that IV and volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols all influenced the AMV over the last ~150 years. Although the AMV since 1870 resulted mainly from IV, decadal variations in aerosol forcing happen to be in phase with the IV-induced AMV and thus enlarged its amplitudes, especially since the late 1920s. Our results support the notion that the AMV resulted from both internal climate variability and decadal changes in aerosols but are inconsistent with the conclusion that the recent AMV is mainly a direct response to external forcing. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Aerosols; Climate models; Anthropogenic aerosols; Climate model simulations; Decadal variations; Direct response; External forcing; Internal climate variability; Internal variability; Multidecadal variability; Climate change; aerosol; annual variation; anthropogenic effect; anthropogenic source; climate change; climate modeling; climate variation; quantitative analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169400
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qin M.,Dai A.,Hua W.. Quantifying Contributions of Internal Variability and External Forcing to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Since 1870[J],2020,47(22).
APA	Qin M.,Dai A.,&Hua W..(2020).Quantifying Contributions of Internal Variability and External Forcing to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Since 1870.Geophysical Research Letters,47(22).
MLA	Qin M.,et al."Quantifying Contributions of Internal Variability and External Forcing to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Since 1870".Geophysical Research Letters 47.22(2020).