气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Urban Scaling as Validation for Predictions of Imperviousness From Population

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL089742
	Urban Scaling as Validation for Predictions of Imperviousness From Population
	Brelsford C.; Coon E.T.; Moran E.; V; Allen-Dumas M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:23
英文摘要	Strategies for creating quantitative projections for human systems, especially impervious surfaces, are necessary to consider the human drivers of climate and ecosystem change. There are models that generate predictions of how impervious surfaces may change in response to different potential futures, but few tools exist for validating those predictions. We seek to fill that gap. We demonstrate a statistically robust sublinear scaling relationship between population and urban imperviousness across a 15 year history. We show that Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) urbanization projections are also consistent with theory. These results demonstrate a theory that can be used to validate other models' predictions of urban growth and land cover change, analogous to the ways in which allometric scaling laws in biology have been used to validate process-based models of ecosystem composition under different climate scenarios. © 2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Climate models; Ecosystems; Forecasting; Land use; Urban growth; Allometric scaling; Climate scenarios; Ecosystem changes; Impervious surface; Land-cover change; Land-use scenario; Process-based models; Scaling relationships; Climate change; climate change; ecosystem dynamics; integrated approach; land use change; population structure; urban area; urban growth; urbanization
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169347
作者单位	National Security Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; Climate Change Science Institute and Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; Math Thesis Program, Oak Ridge High School, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; Climate Change Science Institute and Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brelsford C.,Coon E.T.,Moran E.,et al. Urban Scaling as Validation for Predictions of Imperviousness From Population[J],2020,47(23).
APA	Brelsford C.,Coon E.T.,Moran E.,V,&Allen-Dumas M..(2020).Urban Scaling as Validation for Predictions of Imperviousness From Population.Geophysical Research Letters,47(23).
MLA	Brelsford C.,et al."Urban Scaling as Validation for Predictions of Imperviousness From Population".Geophysical Research Letters 47.23(2020).