气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Interplay Between Subseasonal Rainfall and Global Predictors in Modulating Interannual to Multidecadal Predictability of the ISMR

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL091458
	Interplay Between Subseasonal Rainfall and Global Predictors in Modulating Interannual to Multidecadal Predictability of the ISMR
	Saha S.K.; Konwar M.; Pokhrel S.; Hazra A.; Chaudhari H.S.; Rai A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	48 期号:1
英文摘要	Skillful prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) has been a bottleneck problem for more than 100 years. The low seasonal predictability is attributed primarily to the chaotic nature of the subseasonal variability. Here, we show that these subseasonal variabilities rather have significant predictable contributions to the seasonal ISMR, varying on the interannual to multidecadal timescale. The subseasonal modes being the building blocks of the monsoon, their net linear contribution may approximate the predictability limit of the ISMR. It is estimated that an average of about 76% (R ∼ 0.87) of the ISMR variance predictable around the 1960s is decreased to about 64% (R ∼ 0.79) in the recent past four decades. It is suggested that improvements in the simulation of subseasonal, particularly the synoptic variability will be key to further improve the seasonal ISMR forecast skill. © 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Atmospheric thermodynamics; Bottleneck problem; Building blockes; Chaotic nature; Indian summer monsoon rainfall; Linear contribution; Predictability limit; Subseasonal variability; Synoptic variability; Rain
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169275
作者单位	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Saha S.K.,Konwar M.,Pokhrel S.,et al. Interplay Between Subseasonal Rainfall and Global Predictors in Modulating Interannual to Multidecadal Predictability of the ISMR[J],2021,48(1).
APA	Saha S.K.,Konwar M.,Pokhrel S.,Hazra A.,Chaudhari H.S.,&Rai A..(2021).Interplay Between Subseasonal Rainfall and Global Predictors in Modulating Interannual to Multidecadal Predictability of the ISMR.Geophysical Research Letters,48(1).
MLA	Saha S.K.,et al."Interplay Between Subseasonal Rainfall and Global Predictors in Modulating Interannual to Multidecadal Predictability of the ISMR".Geophysical Research Letters 48.1(2021).