气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multivariate Estimations of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Short Transient Warming Simulations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL091090
	Multivariate Estimations of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Short Transient Warming Simulations
	Bastiaansen R.; Dijkstra H.A.; von der Heydt A.S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	48 期号:1
英文摘要	One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2. Since global climate models cannot be fully equilibrated in practice, extrapolation techniques are used to estimate the equilibrium state from transient warming simulations. Because of the abundance of climate feedbacks—spanning a wide range of temporal scales—it is hard to extract long-term behavior from short-time series; predominantly used techniques are only capable of detecting the single most dominant eigenmode, thus hampering their ability to give accurate long-term estimates. Here, we present an extension to those methods by incorporating data from multiple observables in a multicomponent linear regression model. This way, not only the dominant but also the next-dominant eigenmodes of the climate system are captured, leading to better long-term estimates from short, nonequilibrated time series. © 2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Climate change; Regression analysis; Time series; Climate sensitivity; Extrapolation techniques; Global climate model; Linear regression models; Long-term behavior; Multivariate estimation; Short time series; Temperature increase; Climate models
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169256
作者单位	Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Department of Physics, Centre for Complex System Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bastiaansen R.,Dijkstra H.A.,von der Heydt A.S.. Multivariate Estimations of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Short Transient Warming Simulations[J],2021,48(1).
APA	Bastiaansen R.,Dijkstra H.A.,&von der Heydt A.S..(2021).Multivariate Estimations of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Short Transient Warming Simulations.Geophysical Research Letters,48(1).
MLA	Bastiaansen R.,et al."Multivariate Estimations of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Short Transient Warming Simulations".Geophysical Research Letters 48.1(2021).