气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Centennial-Scale Shifts in Storm Frequency Captured in Paleohurricane Records From The Bahamas Arise Predominantly From Random Variability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL091145
	Centennial-Scale Shifts in Storm Frequency Captured in Paleohurricane Records From The Bahamas Arise Predominantly From Random Variability
	Wallace E.J.; Coats S.; Emanuel K.; Donnelly J.P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	48 期号:1
英文摘要	Event-based paleohurricane reconstructions of the last millennium indicate dramatic changes in the frequency of landfalling hurricanes on centennial timescales. It is difficult to assess whether the variability captured in these paleorecords is related to changing climate or randomness. We assess whether centennial-scale active and quiet intervals of intense hurricane activity occur in a set of synthetic storms run with boundary conditions from an earth system model simulation of the last millennium. We generate 1,000 pseudo sedimentary records for a site on South Andros Island using a Poisson random draw from this synthetic storm data set. We find that any single pseudo sedimentary record contains active and quiet intervals of hurricane activity. The 1,000-record ensemble average, which reflects the common signal of climate variability, does not. This suggests that the record of paleohurricane activity from The Bahamas reflects variability in hurricane frequency dominated by randomness and not variability in the climatic conditions. © 2020 The Authors.
英文关键词	Random processes; Sedimentology; Storms; Climate variability; Climatic conditions; Earth system model; Ensemble averages; Hurricane activity; Hurricane frequency; Random variability; Sedimentary records; Hurricanes
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169240
作者单位	Massachusetts Institute of Technology – Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program in Oceanography, Woods Hole, MA, United States; Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States; School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii-Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wallace E.J.,Coats S.,Emanuel K.,et al. Centennial-Scale Shifts in Storm Frequency Captured in Paleohurricane Records From The Bahamas Arise Predominantly From Random Variability[J],2021,48(1).
APA	Wallace E.J.,Coats S.,Emanuel K.,&Donnelly J.P..(2021).Centennial-Scale Shifts in Storm Frequency Captured in Paleohurricane Records From The Bahamas Arise Predominantly From Random Variability.Geophysical Research Letters,48(1).
MLA	Wallace E.J.,et al."Centennial-Scale Shifts in Storm Frequency Captured in Paleohurricane Records From The Bahamas Arise Predominantly From Random Variability".Geophysical Research Letters 48.1(2021).