气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Northwestern Pacific Warming Record in August 2020 Occurred Under Anthropogenic Forcing

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL090956
	The Northwestern Pacific Warming Record in August 2020 Occurred Under Anthropogenic Forcing
	Hayashi M.; Shiogama H.; Emori S.; Ogura T.; Hirota N.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	48 期号:1
英文摘要	In August 2020, the northwestern Pacific (NWPac; 120°E-180°E, 20°N-35°N) experienced its highest sea surface temperature (SST). Although the NWPac Ocean has warmed due to human-induced greenhouse forcing since the mid-20th century, the extent to which historical anthropogenic effects increase the occurrence probability of such regionally unprecedented warm temperatures is unclear. In this study, using state-of-the-art climate models, we estimate that the August 2020 record high SST in the NWPac likely occurred once per 12–18 years in 2001–2020 owing to historical anthropogenic forcing, and this record SST unlikely occurred without human influences. In the 20th century, anthropogenic effects on the NWPac SST were not distinguishable from internal variability since warming caused by greenhouse gases was largely canceled by aerosol cooling. Furthermore, the 2020 warm SST is projected to be the new normal by 2031–2050, or even if the 2.0°C goal of the Paris Agreement is achieved. © 2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Climate models; Greenhouse gases; Surface waters; Anthropogenic effects; Anthropogenic forcing; Greenhouse forcing; Human influences; Internal variability; Occurrence probability; Sea surface temperature (SST); Warm temperatures; Oceanography
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169223
作者单位	Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hayashi M.,Shiogama H.,Emori S.,et al. The Northwestern Pacific Warming Record in August 2020 Occurred Under Anthropogenic Forcing[J],2021,48(1).
APA	Hayashi M.,Shiogama H.,Emori S.,Ogura T.,&Hirota N..(2021).The Northwestern Pacific Warming Record in August 2020 Occurred Under Anthropogenic Forcing.Geophysical Research Letters,48(1).
MLA	Hayashi M.,et al."The Northwestern Pacific Warming Record in August 2020 Occurred Under Anthropogenic Forcing".Geophysical Research Letters 48.1(2021).