气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Statistical Forecasts for the Occurrence of Precipitation Outperform Global Models over Northern Tropical Africa

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL091022
	Statistical Forecasts for the Occurrence of Precipitation Outperform Global Models over Northern Tropical Africa
	Vogel P.; Knippertz P.; Gneiting T.; Fink A.H.; Klar M.; Schlueter A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	48 期号:3
英文摘要	Short-term global ensemble predictions of rainfall currently have no skill over northern tropical Africa when compared to simple climatology-based forecasts, even after sophisticated statistical postprocessing. Here, we demonstrate that 1-day statistical forecasts for the probability of precipitation occurrence based on a simple logistic regression model have considerable potential for improvement. The new approach we present here relies on gridded rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission for July-September 1998–2017 and uses rainfall amounts from the pixels that show the highest positive and negative correlations on the previous two days as input. Forecasts using this model are reliable and have a higher resolution and better skill than climatology-based forecasts. The good performance is related to westward propagating African easterly waves and embedded mesoscale convective systems. The statistical model is outmatched by the postprocessed dynamical forecast in the dry outer tropics only, where extratropical influences are important. © 2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Climatology; Embedded systems; Logistic regression; Rain; Storms; Tropics; African easterly waves; Ensemble prediction; Mesoscale Convective System; Negative correlation; Rainfall estimates; Simple logistic regressions; Statistical modeling; Tropical rainfall measuring missions; Forecasting
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169143
作者单位	Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany; Institute for Stochastics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany; Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, Heidelberg, Germany; Department of Mathematics, Trier University, Trier, Germany; Department of Computer Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vogel P.,Knippertz P.,Gneiting T.,et al. Statistical Forecasts for the Occurrence of Precipitation Outperform Global Models over Northern Tropical Africa[J],2021,48(3).
APA	Vogel P.,Knippertz P.,Gneiting T.,Fink A.H.,Klar M.,&Schlueter A..(2021).Statistical Forecasts for the Occurrence of Precipitation Outperform Global Models over Northern Tropical Africa.Geophysical Research Letters,48(3).
MLA	Vogel P.,et al."Statistical Forecasts for the Occurrence of Precipitation Outperform Global Models over Northern Tropical Africa".Geophysical Research Letters 48.3(2021).