气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL091307
	Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6
	Borchert L.F.; Menary M.B.; Swingedouw D.; Sgubin G.; Hermanson L.; Mignot J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	48 期号:3
英文摘要	Due to its wide-ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal of climate science. Here, we compare the representation of observed subpolar SST variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitialized historical simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Initialized decadal hindcasts from CMIP6 explain 88% of observed SST variance post-1980 in the subpolar gyre at lead years 5–7 (77% in uninitialized simulations) compared to 42% (8%) in CMIP5, indicating a more prominent role for forcing in driving observed subpolar SST changes than previously thought. Analysis of single-forcing experiments suggests much of this correlation is due to natural forcing, explaining ∼55% of the observed variance. The amplitude of observed subpolar SST variations is underestimated in historical simulations and improved by initialization in CMIP6, indicating continued value of initialization for predicting North Atlantic SST. © 2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Climate models; Forecasting; Surface waters; Climate science; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Decadal predictions; Decadal variations; Historical simulation; Sea surface temperature (SST); Subpolar gyres; Subpolar North Atlantic; Oceanography
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169133
作者单位	LOCEAN Laboratory, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Sorbonne Universités (SU/CNRS/IRD/MNHN), Paris, France; EPOC, Université de Bordeaux, Pessac, France; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Borchert L.F.,Menary M.B.,Swingedouw D.,et al. Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6[J],2021,48(3).
APA	Borchert L.F.,Menary M.B.,Swingedouw D.,Sgubin G.,Hermanson L.,&Mignot J..(2021).Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6.Geophysical Research Letters,48(3).
MLA	Borchert L.F.,et al."Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6".Geophysical Research Letters 48.3(2021).