气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Bias in CMIP6 models as compared to observed regional dimming and brightening

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DOI	10.5194/acp-20-16023-2020
	Bias in CMIP6 models as compared to observed regional dimming and brightening
	Onsum Moseid K.; Schulz M.; Storelvmo T.; Rian Julsrud I.; Olivié D.; Nabat P.; Wild M.; Cole J.N.S.; Takemura T.; Oshima N.; Bauer S.E.; Gastineau G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	16023
结束页码	16040
卷号	20 期号:24
英文摘要	Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have increased considerably over the last century, but climate effects and quantification of the emissions are highly uncertain as one goes back in time. This uncertainty is partly due to a lack of observations in the pre-satellite era, making the observations we do have before 1990 additionally valuable. Aerosols suspended in the atmosphere scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation and thereby alter the Earth's surface energy balance. Previous studies show that Earth system models (ESMs) do not adequately represent surface energy fluxes over the historical era. We investigated global and regional aerosol effects over the time period 1961-2014 by looking at surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR). We used observations from ground stations as well as multiple experiments from eight ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6). Our results show that this subset of models reproduces the observed transient SDSR well in Europe but poorly in China. We suggest that this may be attributed to missing emissions of sulfur dioxide in China, sulfur dioxide being a precursor to sulfate, which is a highly reflective aerosol and responsible for more reflective clouds. The emissions of sulfur dioxide used in the models do not show a temporal pattern that could explain observed SDSR evolution over China. The results from various aerosol emission perturbation experiments from DAMIP, RFMIP and AerChemMIP show that only simulations containing anthropogenic aerosol emissions show dimming, even if the dimming is underestimated. Simulated clear-sky and all-sky SDSR do not differ greatly, suggesting that cloud cover changes are not a dominant cause of the biased SDSR evolution in the simulations. Therefore we suggest that the discrepancy between modeled and observed SDSR evolution is partly caused by erroneous aerosol and aerosol precursor emission inventories. This is an important finding as it may help interpret whether ESMs reproduce the historical climate evolution for the right or wrong reason. © Author(s) 2020.
英文关键词	aerosol; albedo; atmospheric modeling; cloud cover; CMIP; emission; emission inventory; energy balance; energy flux; shortwave radiation; solar radiation; sulfur dioxide; suspended particulate matter; China
语种	英语
来源期刊	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/168867
作者单位	Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Research Department, Oslo, Norway; University of Oslo, Department of Geosciences, Section for Meteorology and Oceanography, Oslo, Norway; Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM), Universite de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, Switzerland; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; Climate Change Science Section, Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan; Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; LOCEAN, IPSL, Sorbonne Université, IRD, MNHN, CNRS, Paris, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Onsum Moseid K.,Schulz M.,Storelvmo T.,et al. Bias in CMIP6 models as compared to observed regional dimming and brightening[J],2020,20(24).
APA	Onsum Moseid K..,Schulz M..,Storelvmo T..,Rian Julsrud I..,Olivié D..,...&Gastineau G..(2020).Bias in CMIP6 models as compared to observed regional dimming and brightening.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,20(24).
MLA	Onsum Moseid K.,et al."Bias in CMIP6 models as compared to observed regional dimming and brightening".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20.24(2020).