气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.accre.2020.09.003
	Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015–2099
	Li S.-Y.; Miao L.-J.; Jiang Z.-H.; Wang G.-J.; Gnyawali K.R.; Zhang J.; Zhang H.; Fang K.; He Y.; Li C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1674-9278
起始页码	210
结束页码	217
卷号	11 期号:3
英文摘要	Northwest China is one of the most arid regions in the world and has experienced intriguing climate warming and humidification. Nonetheless, future climate conditions in Northwest China still remain uncertain. In this study, we applied an ensemble of the 12 latest model simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to assess future drought conditions until 2099 in Northwest China, as inferred from the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Future drought conditions were projected under three climate change scenarios through the combination of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs), namely, SSP126 (SSP1 + RCP2.6, a green development pathway), SSP245 (SSP2 + RCP4.5, an intermediate development pathway), and SSP585 (SSP5 + RCP8.5, a high development pathway). For 2015–2099, drought severity showed no trend under SSP126, in contrast, for the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, a rapid increase during 2015–2099 was observed, especially under SSP585. We also found that the drought frequency in Northwest China under SSP585 was generally lower than that under SSP126 and SSP245, although the drought duration under SSP585 tended to be longer. These findings suggest the green development pathway in drought mitigation and adaptation strategies in Northwest China, an arid and agricultural region along the Silk Road. © 2020 National Climate Center (China Meteorological Administration)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Advances in Climate Change Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/168720
作者单位	School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies, Halle (Saale), 06120, Germany; Natural Hazards Section, Himalayan Risk Research Institute, Bhaktapur, 44800, Nepal; Shangyu Meteorological Bureau, Shaoxing, 312000, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li S.-Y.,Miao L.-J.,Jiang Z.-H.,等. Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015–2099[J],2020,11(3).
APA	Li S.-Y..,Miao L.-J..,Jiang Z.-H..,Wang G.-J..,Gnyawali K.R..,...&Li C..(2020).Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015–2099.Advances in Climate Change Research,11(3).
MLA	Li S.-Y.,et al."Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015–2099".Advances in Climate Change Research 11.3(2020).