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DOI	10.1016/j.accre.2020.09.008
	Global climate damage in 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios based on BCC_SESM model in IAM framework
	Zhao Z.-J.; Chen X.-T.; Liu C.-Y.; Yang F.; Tan X.; Zhao Y.; Huang H.; Wei C.; Shi X.-L.; Zhai W.; Guo F.; van Ruijven B.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1674-9278
起始页码	261
结束页码	272
卷号	11 期号:3
英文摘要	The quantitative functions for climate damages provide theoretical ground for the cost-benefit analysis in climate change economics, and they are also critical for linking climate module with economic module in the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Nevertheless, it is necessary for IAMs to update sectoral climate impacts in order to catch up the advance in climate change studies. This study updates the sectoral climate damage function at global scale from climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND) model and develops the aggregate climate damage function in a bottom-up fashion. Besides conventional sectors such as agriculture, forestry, water resources, energy consumption and ecosystems, this study expands climate disaster types, assesses human health impacts caused by various air pollutants, and updates coastal damage by sea level rise. The Beijing Climate Center Simple Earth System Model (BCC_SESM) is used to project climate system based on Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, and the 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios based on RCPs and SSP2 databases. Sectoral results show that the agricultural sector is projected to suffer 63% of the total damage, followed by water resources (16%) and human health (12%) sectors in 2100. The regression results indicate that the aggregate climate damage function is in positive quadratic form for zero discounting. Under BAU scenario, the aggregate climate damage is projected to be 517.7 trillion USD during 2011–2100. Compared to that, the 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios are projected to respectively reduce climate damages by 215.6 trillion USD (approximately 41.6%) and 263.5 trillion USD (50.9%) in 2011–2100. © 2020 National Climate Center (China Meteorological Administration)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Advances in Climate Change Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/168718
作者单位	Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization, Beijing, 100031, China; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China; Beijing City University, Beijing, 100083, China; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, 2361, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao Z.-J.,Chen X.-T.,Liu C.-Y.,et al. Global climate damage in 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios based on BCC_SESM model in IAM framework[J],2020,11(3).
APA	Zhao Z.-J..,Chen X.-T..,Liu C.-Y..,Yang F..,Tan X..,...&van Ruijven B.J..(2020).Global climate damage in 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios based on BCC_SESM model in IAM framework.Advances in Climate Change Research,11(3).
MLA	Zhao Z.-J.,et al."Global climate damage in 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios based on BCC_SESM model in IAM framework".Advances in Climate Change Research 11.3(2020).