气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments

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DOI	10.1038/s41893-020-0569-7
	Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments
	Wang X.; Zhao C.; Müller C.; Wang C.; Ciais P.; Janssens I.; Peñuelas J.; Asseng S.; Li T.; Elliott J.; Huang Y.; Li L.; Piao S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	908
结束页码	916
卷号	3 期号:11
英文摘要	Responses of global crop yields to warmer temperatures are fundamental to sustainable development under climate change but remain uncertain. Here, we combined a global dataset of field warming experiments (48 sites) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean with gridded global crop models to produce field-data-constrained estimates on responses of crop yield to changes in temperature (ST) with the emergent-constraint approach. Our constrained estimates show with >95% probability that warmer temperatures would reduce yields for maize (−7.1 ± 2.8% K−1), rice (−5.6 ± 2.0% K−1) and soybean (−10.6 ± 5.8% K−1). For wheat, ST was 89% likely to be negative (−2.9 ± 2.3% K−1). Uncertainties associated with modelled ST were reduced by 12–54% for the four crops but data constraints do not allow for further disentangling ST of different crop types. A key implication for impact assessments after the Paris Agreement is that direct warming impacts alone will reduce major crop yields by 3–13% under 2 K global warming without considering CO2 fertilization effects and adaptations. Even if warming was limited to 1.5 K, all major producing countries would still face notable warming-induced yield reduction. This yield loss could be partially offset by projected benefits from elevated CO2, whose magnitude remains uncertain, and highlights the challenge to compensate it by autonomous adaptation. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon dioxide; Global warming; Crop model; Data constraints; Elevated CO2; Field data; Field experiment; Impact assessments; Yield loss; Yield reduction; Crops
来源期刊	Nature Sustainability
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/163546
作者单位	Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium; CREAF, Barcelona, Spain; CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CEAB-CSIC-UAB, Barcelona, Spain; Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States; Applied GeoSolutions, Durham, NH, United States; Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France; Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Researc...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang X.,Zhao C.,Müller C.,et al. Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments[J],2020,3(11).
APA	Wang X..,Zhao C..,Müller C..,Wang C..,Ciais P..,...&Piao S..(2020).Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments.Nature Sustainability,3(11).
MLA	Wang X.,et al."Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments".Nature Sustainability 3.11(2020).