气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): China’s CO2 peak before 2030 implied from characteristics and growth of cities

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DOI	10.1038/s41893-019-0339-6
	China’s CO2 peak before 2030 implied from characteristics and growth of cities
	Wang H.; Lu X.; Deng Y.; Sun Y.; Nielsen C.P.; Liu Y.; Zhu G.; Bu M.; Bi J.; McElroy M.B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	748
结束页码	754
卷号	2 期号:8
英文摘要	China pledges to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 or sooner under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2 °C or less by the end of the century. By examining CO2 emissions from 50 Chinese cities over the period 2000–2016, we found a close relationship between per capita emissions and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) for individual cities, following the environmental Kuznets curve, despite diverse trajectories for CO2 emissions across the cities. Results show that carbon emissions peak for most cities at a per capita GDP (in 2011 purchasing power parity) of around US$21,000 (80% confidence interval: US$19,000 to 22,000). Applying a Monte Carlo approach to simulate the peak of per capita emissions using a Kuznets function based on China’s historical emissions, we project that emissions for China should peak at 13–16 GtCO2 yr−1 between 2021 and 2025, approximately 5–10 yr ahead of the current Paris target of 2030. We show that the challenges faced by individual types of Chinese cities in realizing low-carbon development differ significantly depending on economic structure, urban form and geographical location. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon; Economics; Global warming; Confidence interval; Environmental Kuznets curves; Geographical locations; Gross domestic products; Historical emissions; Low-carbon development; Monte Carlo approach; Purchasing power parity; Carbon dioxide
来源期刊	Nature Sustainability
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/163543
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; School of Environment and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing, China; Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; School of Business and Hopkins-Nanjing Center, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang H.,Lu X.,Deng Y.,等. China’s CO2 peak before 2030 implied from characteristics and growth of cities[J],2019,2(8).
APA	Wang H..,Lu X..,Deng Y..,Sun Y..,Nielsen C.P..,...&McElroy M.B..(2019).China’s CO2 peak before 2030 implied from characteristics and growth of cities.Nature Sustainability,2(8).
MLA	Wang H.,et al."China’s CO2 peak before 2030 implied from characteristics and growth of cities".Nature Sustainability 2.8(2019).