气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The role of movement restrictions in limiting the economic impact of livestock infections

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DOI	10.1038/s41893-019-0356-5
	The role of movement restrictions in limiting the economic impact of livestock infections
	Tildesley M.J.; Brand S.; Brooks Pollock E.; Bradbury N.V.; Werkman M.; Keeling M.J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	834
结束页码	840
卷号	2 期号:9
英文摘要	Livestock movements are essential for the economic success of the industry. However, these movements come with the risk of long-range spread of infection, potentially bringing infection to previously disease-free areas where subsequent localized transmission can be devastating. Mechanistic predictive models usually consider controls that minimize the number of livestock affected without considering other costs of an ongoing epidemic. However, it is more appropriate to consider the economic burden, as movement restrictions have major consequences for the economic revenue of farms. Here, using mechanistic models of foot-and-mouth disease, bluetongue virus and bovine tuberculosis in the UK, we compare the economically optimal control strategies for these diseases. We show that for foot-and-mouth disease, the optimal strategy is to ban movements in a small radius around infected farms; the balance between disease control and maintaining ‘business as usual’ varies between regions. For bluetongue virus and bovine tuberculosis, we find that the cost of any movement ban is greater than the epidemiological benefits due to the low within-farm prevalence and slow rate of disease spread. This work suggests that movement controls need to be carefully matched to the epidemiological and economic consequences of the disease, and that optimal movement bans are often of far shorter duration than allowed under existing policy. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Binary alloys; Disease control; Mammals; Potassium alloys; Uranium alloys; Viruses; Bovine tuberculosis; Economic consequences; Foot and mouth disease; Livestock movements; Mechanistic models; Optimal control strategy; Optimal strategies; Predictive models; Economic and social effects
来源期刊	Nature Sustainability
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/163513
作者单位	Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom; Bristol Veterinary School, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tildesley M.J.,Brand S.,Brooks Pollock E.,et al. The role of movement restrictions in limiting the economic impact of livestock infections[J],2019,2(9).
APA	Tildesley M.J.,Brand S.,Brooks Pollock E.,Bradbury N.V.,Werkman M.,&Keeling M.J..(2019).The role of movement restrictions in limiting the economic impact of livestock infections.Nature Sustainability,2(9).
MLA	Tildesley M.J.,et al."The role of movement restrictions in limiting the economic impact of livestock infections".Nature Sustainability 2.9(2019).