气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41893-019-0287-1
	The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050
	Pastor A.V.; Palazzo A.; Havlik P.; Biemans H.; Wada Y.; Obersteiner M.; Kabat P.; Ludwig F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	499
结束页码	507
卷号	2 期号:6
英文摘要	In the face of meeting Sustainable Development Goals for the water–food–energy–ecosystems nexus, integrated assessments are a great means to measure the impact of global change on natural resources. In this study, we evaluate the impact of climate change with the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario and the impact of socioeconomics with the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 scenario on land use, water consumption and food trade under four water regulation policy scenarios (invest, exploit, environment and environment+). We used the Global Biosphere Management Model and constrained it with water availability, environmental flow requirements, and water use from agriculture, industry and households (simulated using the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land model, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model and WaterGap model). Here, we show that an increase in land use by 100 Mha would be required to double food production by 2050, to meet projected food demands. International trade would need to nearly triple to meet future crop demands, with an additional 10–20% trade flow from water-abundant regions to water-scarce regions to sustain environmental flow requirements on a global scale. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Climate models; Environmental protection; International trade; Land use; Water supply; Environmental flow; Environmental policy integrated climate models; Food production; Integrated assessment; Management Model; Water availability; Water consumption; Water regulation; Sustainable development
来源期刊	Nature Sustainability
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/163409
作者单位	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Modelling, Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal; Climate Change and Adaptive Land and Water Management Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands; World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pastor A.V.,Palazzo A.,Havlik P.,等. The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050[J],2019,2(6).
APA	Pastor A.V..,Palazzo A..,Havlik P..,Biemans H..,Wada Y..,...&Ludwig F..(2019).The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050.Nature Sustainability,2(6).
MLA	Pastor A.V.,et al."The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050".Nature Sustainability 2.6(2019).