气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Hard-adaptive measures can increase vulnerability to storm surge and tsunami hazards over time

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41893-018-0137-6
	Hard-adaptive measures can increase vulnerability to storm surge and tsunami hazards over time
	Logan T.M.; Guikema S.D.; Bricker J.D.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	526
结束页码	530
卷号	1 期号:9
英文摘要	Whether hard-adaptive measures (for example, seawalls) actually reduce vulnerability to natural hazards is the subject of considerable debate. Existing quantitative risk assessments often ignore behavioural feedbacks that some claim lead to increased development in hazardous zones. Here, we couple a tsunami model with a land-use change model and find that hard-adaptive measures can induce a false sense of security and inadvertently lead to increased vulnerability (that is, are maladaptive). We also observe that heightened hazard awareness (a type of soft-adaptation) can reduce vulnerability. Our results have two major implications: (1) they challenge existing hazard adaptation practice by quantitatively demonstrating the potential for hard-adaptive measures to be maladaptive, and (2) they highlight that ignoring the behavioural feedbacks in hazard assessment can alter the conclusions to the extent that they fail to identify maladaptive actions. In addition to the demonstrated case of tsunamis, the result may be relevant to other, repeatable natural hazards where urban growth influences exposure (for example, storm surge). Ultimately, neglecting future urban development and the temporal evolution of risk can result in incorrect conclusions regarding adaptation strategies; including these processes is therefore an essential consideration for the natural hazard and climate change impact communities. © 2018, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Floods; Hazards; Land use; Risk assessment; Storms; Tsunamis; Adaptation strategies; Climate change impact; Essential considerations; Land use change modeling; Quantitative risk assessment; Sense of security; Temporal evolution; Urban development; Urban growth
来源期刊	Nature Sustainability
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/163320
作者单位	Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Logan T.M.,Guikema S.D.,Bricker J.D.. Hard-adaptive measures can increase vulnerability to storm surge and tsunami hazards over time[J],2018,1(9).
APA	Logan T.M.,Guikema S.D.,&Bricker J.D..(2018).Hard-adaptive measures can increase vulnerability to storm surge and tsunami hazards over time.Nature Sustainability,1(9).
MLA	Logan T.M.,et al."Hard-adaptive measures can increase vulnerability to storm surge and tsunami hazards over time".Nature Sustainability 1.9(2018).