气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global assessment of water challenges under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41893-018-0134-9
	Global assessment of water challenges under uncertainty in water scarcity projections
	Greve P.; Kahil T.; Mochizuki J.; Schinko T.; Satoh Y.; Burek P.; Fischer G.; Tramberend S.; Burtscher R.; Langan S.; Wada Y.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	486
结束页码	494
卷号	1 期号:9
英文摘要	Water scarcity, a critical environmental issue worldwide, has primarily been driven by a significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate and societal changes are projected to further exacerbate water scarcity in many regions worldwide. Today, a major issue for the ongoing policy debate is to identify interventions able to address water scarcity challenges in the presence of large uncertainties. Here, we take a probabilistic approach to assess global water scarcity projections following feasible combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways for the first half of the twenty-first century. We identify—alongside trends in median water scarcity—changes in the uncertainty range of anticipated water scarcity conditions. Our results show that median water scarcity and the associated range of uncertainty are generally increasing worldwide, including many major river basins. On the basis of these results, we develop a general decision-making framework to enhance policymaking by identifying four representative clusters of specific water policy challenges and needs. © 2018, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Water management; Decision-making frameworks; Environmental issues; Policy debates; Probabilistic approaches; Societal changes; Water extraction; Water scarcity; Water scarcity conditions; Decision making
来源期刊	Nature Sustainability
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/163206
作者单位	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Greve P.,Kahil T.,Mochizuki J.,et al. Global assessment of water challenges under uncertainty in water scarcity projections[J],2018,1(9).
APA	Greve P..,Kahil T..,Mochizuki J..,Schinko T..,Satoh Y..,...&Wada Y..(2018).Global assessment of water challenges under uncertainty in water scarcity projections.Nature Sustainability,1(9).
MLA	Greve P.,et al."Global assessment of water challenges under uncertainty in water scarcity projections".Nature Sustainability 1.9(2018).