气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries

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DOI	10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1
	Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries
	Gerten D.; Heck V.; Jägermeyr J.; Bodirsky B.L.; Fetzer I.; Jalava M.; Kummu M.; Lucht W.; Rockström J.; Schaphoff S.; Schellnhuber H.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	200
结束页码	208
卷号	3 期号:3
英文摘要	Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water–nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Food supply; Agricultural system; Balanced diet; Dietary changes; Food production; Model framework; Nutrient management; Spatially explicit; Sustainable production; Waste management
来源期刊	Nature Sustainability
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/163194
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany; Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human–Environment Systems, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Water & Development Research Group, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland; Department of Computer Science, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gerten D.,Heck V.,Jägermeyr J.,et al. Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries[J],2020,3(3).
APA	Gerten D..,Heck V..,Jägermeyr J..,Bodirsky B.L..,Fetzer I..,...&Schellnhuber H.J..(2020).Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries.Nature Sustainability,3(3).
MLA	Gerten D.,et al."Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries".Nature Sustainability 3.3(2020).