气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41893-019-0286-2
	A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation
	Fujimori S.; Hasegawa T.; Krey V.; Riahi K.; Bertram C.; Bodirsky B.L.; Bosetti V.; Callen J.; Després J.; Doelman J.; Drouet L.; Emmerling J.; Frank S.; Fricko O.; Havlik P.; Humpenöder F.; Koopman J.F.L.; van Meijl H.; Ochi Y.; Popp A.; Schmitz A.; Takahashi K.; van Vuuren D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	386
结束页码	396
卷号	2 期号:5
英文摘要	Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18% of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial, further reducing the above cost. Although results vary across models and model implementations, the qualitative implications are robust and call for careful design of climate mitigation policies taking into account agriculture and land prices. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Economic and social effects; Food supply; Adverse side effects; Climate change mitigation; Climate mitigations; Food security; Gross domestic products; Model implementation; Number of peoples; Pre-industrial levels; Climate change
来源期刊	Nature Sustainability
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/163187
作者单位	Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, Kusatsu, Japan; Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Milan, Italy; Department of Economics, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy; Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, Seville, Spain; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands; Wageningen economic Research, Wageningen University and Research Centre, The Hague, Netherlands; E-Konzal, Osaka, Japan; Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Developm...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fujimori S.,Hasegawa T.,Krey V.,et al. A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation[J],2019,2(5).
APA	Fujimori S..,Hasegawa T..,Krey V..,Riahi K..,Bertram C..,...&van Vuuren D..(2019).A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation.Nature Sustainability,2(5).
MLA	Fujimori S.,et al."A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation".Nature Sustainability 2.5(2019).