气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon

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DOI	10.1038/s41893-020-0492-y
	Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon
	Arias M.E.; Farinosi F.; Lee E.; Livino A.; Briscoe J.; Moorcroft P.R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	430
结束页码	436
卷号	3 期号:6
英文摘要	The Amazon Basin is Brazil’s next frontier for hydropower, but alterations to the water cycle from climate change and deforestation could affect river flows fuelling electricity generation. This research investigated the effects of global and regional changes to the largest network of planned and existing dams within a single basin in the Amazon (the Tapajόs River), which altogether accounts for nearly 50% of the inventoried potential expansion in Brazil. Future hydrological conditions could delay the period of maximum daily generation by 22–29 d, worsening the mismatch between seasonal electricity supply and peak demand. Overall, climate change could decrease dry season hydropower potential by 430–312 GWh per month (−7.4 to −5.4%), while combined effects of deforestation could increase interannual variability from 548 to 713–926 GWh per month (+50% to +69%). Incorporating future change and coordinating dam operations should be a premise in energy planning that could help develop more resilient energy portfolios. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Deforestation; Hydroelectric power; Hydroelectric power plants; Brazilian Amazon; Electricity generation; Electricity supply; Energy portfolio; Hydrological condition; Hydropower planning; Hydropower potential; Interannual variability; Climate change
来源期刊	Nature Sustainability
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/163028
作者单位	Sustainability Science Program, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, United States; Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy; Joint Research Center, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research and Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Energy Research Office, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Arias M.E.,Farinosi F.,Lee E.,et al. Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon[J],2020,3(6).
APA	Arias M.E.,Farinosi F.,Lee E.,Livino A.,Briscoe J.,&Moorcroft P.R..(2020).Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon.Nature Sustainability,3(6).
MLA	Arias M.E.,et al."Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon".Nature Sustainability 3.6(2020).