气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Population exposed to drought under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in the Indus River Basin

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.12.003
	Population exposed to drought under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in the Indus River Basin
	Wen S.; Wang A.; Tao H.; Malik K.; Huang J.; Zhai J.; Jing C.; Rasul G.; Su B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0169-8095
起始页码	296
结束页码	305
卷号	218
英文摘要	Based on multiple global climate models (GCMs), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Intensity-Area-Duration (IAD) method were used to identify drought events of the Indus River Basin (IRB) in the reference period (1986–2005) and under 1.5 °C (2020–2039 in RCP2.6) and 2.0 °C (2040–2059 in RCP4.5) global warming scenarios. Then, the population exposure was assessed by combining drought events with a projected dynamic population amount from five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), in which describe future of societal development considering the effects of climate change and climate policies. Research results show that both precipitation and evapotranspiration are projected to increase with global warming. Due to a higher increase in evapotranspiration than in precipitation, frequency, intensity, and areal coverage of drought events in the IRB are expected to increase under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios relative to the 1986–2005 reference period. In particular, frequency and areal coverage of extreme severe droughts will increase significantly. With aggravation of droughts across the IRB, annual population exposure will increase considerably from 43.2 million in 1986-2005 to approximately 114.4 million based on SSP1 (a sustainable world) under the 1.5 °C global warming scenario and will reach 163.1 million based on SSP3 (a strongly fragmented world) under the 2.0 °C scenario. Compared with the 2.0 °C level, maintaining the increase in global average temperature below the 1.5 °C limit can reduce the population exposed to drought by approximately 1.4-fold. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Drought; Indus River Basin; Intensity-Area-Duration; Population Exposure; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Evapotranspiration; Global warming; Rivers; Watersheds; Atmospheric research; Global climate model; Indus river basin; Intensity-Area-Duration; Population exposure; Projected dynamics; Research results; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; Drought; climate effect; drought; environmental policy; evapotranspiration; global warming; precipitation assessment; river basin; socioeconomic conditions; Indus Basin
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/162288
作者单位	Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang, 830011, China; China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing, 10081, China; Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wen S.,Wang A.,Tao H.,等. Population exposed to drought under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in the Indus River Basin[J],2019,218.
APA	Wen S..,Wang A..,Tao H..,Malik K..,Huang J..,...&Su B..(2019).Population exposed to drought under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in the Indus River Basin.Atmospheric Research,218.
MLA	Wen S.,et al."Population exposed to drought under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in the Indus River Basin".Atmospheric Research 218(2019).