气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Numerical simulation and sensitivity study of a severe hailstorm over Istanbul

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105373
	Numerical simulation and sensitivity study of a severe hailstorm over Istanbul
	Toker E.; Ezber Y.; Sen O.L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
英文摘要	A heavy hailstorm developed over Istanbul on July 27, 2017 and inflicted substantial damage on hundreds of buildings and thousands of vehicles. Weather forecast models largely failed to predict this event. In this study, we investigate the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating this particular hailstorm through a sensitivity experiment and the development of the supercell using one of the simulations that produce comparatively better performance in reproducing the hail event. A total of 24 sensitivity simulations involving different microphysics (Milbrandt, NSSL2, WDM6, and Goddard), cumulus (New SAS, New Tiedtke, and Kain Fritsch), and planetary boundary layer (PBL) (YSU, and MYNN2) schemes are conducted. The sensitivity simulations produce different rainfall patterns in the innermost domain, and the major differences in the spatial patterns arise because of the cumulus parameterizations, while microphysics schemes seem to influence the magnitude of the precipitation. All simulations reproduce thunderstorms resulting in substantial precipitation over Istanbul, however, only those with Kain Fritsch cumulus scheme are able to generate hail over the city. The simulation with YSU PBL, Kain Fritsch cumulus and Milbrandt microphysics schemes (YKM) produces hail paths that best match the observations. The YKM simulation reproduces a near typical structure of a storm cloud with an anvil shape, an overshooting top reaching about 12 km altitude, and a weak echo region in the front part. The model is able to simulate strong convection supported by the low-level convergence and low-to-mid-tropospheric wind shear that produces an updraft near the center of the storm where warm and moist air rises rapidly upward at velocities up to 28 m/s. The simulation yields 21.5 mm precipitation and 3.9 mm hail during the first 15 min when the storm starts to affect the city center. Our analysis suggests that the WRF model has high potential to realistically simulate the hailstorms if physics options are reasonably selected. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Different physics parameterizations; Hail; Natural hazards; Sensitivity simulations; Severe convective storm; WRF
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Boundary layers; Clouds; Precipitation (meteorology); Shear flow; Storms; Planetary boundary layers; Sensitivity Simulation; Sensitivity studies; Strong convections; Tropospheric winds; Typical structures; Weather forecast models; Weather research and forecasting models; Weather forecasting
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/162258
作者单位	Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Toker E.,Ezber Y.,Sen O.L.. Numerical simulation and sensitivity study of a severe hailstorm over Istanbul[J],2020.
APA	Toker E.,Ezber Y.,&Sen O.L..(2020).Numerical simulation and sensitivity study of a severe hailstorm over Istanbul.Atmospheric Research.
MLA	Toker E.,et al."Numerical simulation and sensitivity study of a severe hailstorm over Istanbul".Atmospheric Research (2020).