气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate classifications from regional and global climate models: Performances for present climate estimates and expected changes in the future at high spatial resolution

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.05.022
	Climate classifications from regional and global climate models: Performances for present climate estimates and expected changes in the future at high spatial resolution
	Tapiador F.J.; Moreno R.; Navarro A.; Sánchez J.L.; García-Ortega E.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0169-8095
起始页码	107
结束页码	121
卷号	228
英文摘要	Climate classifications based on temperature and precipitation measurements are increasingly being used for environmental and climate change studies. Using three classification methods (Köppen, Extended Köppen, and Holdridge) and one observational dataset for present climate (CRU, Climate Research Unit), we show that GCMs have bridged the gap that led to the emergence of RCMs thirty years ago, as GCMs can now provide global climate classifications whose accuracy and precision are comparable to those of regional outputs of the RCMs. Projections of high-resolution GCMs for future climates under the assumptions of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85) can therefore be used as a primary source for climate change and global warming studies at high resolution. This paper provides comprehensive, model-derived climate classifications for the entire planet, using RCMs and two GCMs for present and future climate-change scenarios, and discusses how well the models actually represent the climates of the world when compared with reference, ground validation data. It turns out that both GCMs and RCMs appear still limited to provide practical estimates of the world climates even for present climate conditions. The modeling of precipitation remains the Achilles' heel of models and thus of multidimensional indices, which are very sensitive to this variable. The conclusion is that model outputs at regional scale need to be taken with extreme caution without venturing into informing policies presenting potentially large societal impacts. Nonetheless, the role of models as privileged tools to advance our scientific knowledge of the Earth's system remains undisputed. © 2019
英文关键词	Climate classifications; Earth System Models; Global Climate Models; Regional Climate Models
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Classification (of information); Earth (planet); Global warming; Accuracy and precision; Classification methods; Earth system model; Global climate model; High spatial resolution; Multidimensional index; Precipitation measurement; Regional climate models; Climate models; climate change; climate classification; climate modeling; estimation method; future prospect; general circulation model; global climate; model validation; performance assessment; regional climate; spatial resolution; weather forecasting
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/162248
作者单位	Institute of Environmental Sciences (ICAM), Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Biochemistry, Earth and Space Sciences (ess) Group, University of Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Avda. Carlos III s/n, Toledo, 45071, Spain; Atmospheric Physics Group (GFA), Environmental Institute, University of León (ULE), León, 24071, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tapiador F.J.,Moreno R.,Navarro A.,et al. Climate classifications from regional and global climate models: Performances for present climate estimates and expected changes in the future at high spatial resolution[J],2019,228.
APA	Tapiador F.J.,Moreno R.,Navarro A.,Sánchez J.L.,&García-Ortega E..(2019).Climate classifications from regional and global climate models: Performances for present climate estimates and expected changes in the future at high spatial resolution.Atmospheric Research,228.
MLA	Tapiador F.J.,et al."Climate classifications from regional and global climate models: Performances for present climate estimates and expected changes in the future at high spatial resolution".Atmospheric Research 228(2019).