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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.036
	Sensitivity of extreme rainfall to temperature in semi-arid Mediterranean regions
	Pumo D.; Carlino G.; Blenkinsop S.; Arnone E.; Fowler H.; Noto L.V.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0169-8095
起始页码	30
结束页码	44
卷号	225
英文摘要	Warmer air has the potential to hold more water vapour and, therefore, to provide more water to rainfall events. Studying the relationship between rainfall and temperature represents an emerging issue in hydrology and meteorology, since it can be considered fundamental for evaluating the effects of global warming on future precipitation. Various approaches have been tested across different parts of the world, in many cases observing an intensification of extreme precipitation at higher temperatures consistent with the well-known thermodynamic Clausius-Clapeyron relation (CC-scaling rate of 6–7%°C −1 ). However, at different locations for hourly time-scales, the temperature-extreme rainfall scaling can be higher (super-CC) or lower (sub-CC). This study contributes to the understanding of the scaling relationship between extreme rainfall and temperature under climate conditions characteristic of Mediterranean semi-arid regions, rarely explored in the past. The role of different factors, such as rainfall characteristics and climatic seasonality, modelling framework and rainfall accumulation period are investigated through an application to Sicily (Italy). In particular, the suitability of different types of regression models used to interpret the relationship between hourly and sub-hourly extreme rainfall and surface temperature is explored. We find overall a sub-CC scaling for most of the island of Sicily. However, the rainfall-temperature scaling relationship is not constant over the temperature range and may be dependent on the season. The different results obtained highlight the importance of modelling choices for analyses in regions characterized by semi-arid climates. More specifically, we observe increasing scaling rates for decreasing rainfall accumulation periods, and significant sensitivity of scaling rates to the selected extreme rainfall quantile. Our novel use of piecewise and locally-weighted scatter plot smoothing regression-based approaches allow the accurate characterization of the temperature dependence of extreme rainfall in Sicily. This identifies a peak-like structure for the drier season, not detected by the simple application of the commonly-used exponential regression based approach. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Clausius-Clapeyron; Extreme rainfall; Global warming; LOESS regression; Piecewise regression; Water vapour
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Global warming; Regression analysis; Temperature distribution; Water vapor; Clausius-Clapeyron; Extreme rainfall; LOESS regression; Piecewise regression; Water vapour; Rain; accumulation; air temperature; extreme event; global warming; precipitation intensity; regression analysis; semiarid region; water vapor; Italy; Mediterranean Region; Sicily
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/162194
作者单位	Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, Ed. 8, Palermo, 90128, Italy; School of Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Cassie Building, Newcastle Upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, United Kingdom; AMIGO s.r.l., Via Flaminia 48, Rome, I-00196, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pumo D.,Carlino G.,Blenkinsop S.,et al. Sensitivity of extreme rainfall to temperature in semi-arid Mediterranean regions[J],2019,225.
APA	Pumo D.,Carlino G.,Blenkinsop S.,Arnone E.,Fowler H.,&Noto L.V..(2019).Sensitivity of extreme rainfall to temperature in semi-arid Mediterranean regions.Atmospheric Research,225.
MLA	Pumo D.,et al."Sensitivity of extreme rainfall to temperature in semi-arid Mediterranean regions".Atmospheric Research 225(2019).