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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.09.019
	Nowcasting of the probability of accumulated precipitation based on the radar echo extrapolation
	Pop L.; Sokol Z.; Minářová J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0169-8095
起始页码	1
结束页码	10
卷号	216
英文摘要	The study presents a new method nowcasting precipitation called the Ensemble Tree Method (ETM), which gives probability forecast of accumulated precipitation based on the extrapolation of radar reflectivity. ETM combines a tree model with a Bootstrap technique. It forecasts the probability that the hourly accumulated precipitation exceeds a given threshold for cells of 3 by 3 km size. ETM was tested using radar reflectivity data from July 2012 in a domain of 489 km by 291 km covering the Czech Republic (Central Europe). While forecasting, we considered a lead time of up to 180 min having a time step of 30 min and four precipitation thresholds (0.1, 1.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm). ETM provided us forecasts of the probability of exceeding an hourly precipitation threshold from 0 to 60 min, 30 to 90 min, …, and 120 to 180 min. The performance of ETM was assessed using a skill score derived from the mean-square-error, and was compared with the performance of forecasts based on a logistic regression that was used as reference forecast. We demonstrated that the prediction of ETM is better than that of the reference forecast. The main advantage of ETM is that the ETM reflects the uncertainty of forecast better as compared to the overconfident reference forecasts, which is particularly true for the higher precipitation thresholds. Thus, despite low predicted probabilities, the forecasts given by ETM seem more realistic. © 2018
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Extrapolation; Forestry; Mean square error; Radar; Reflection; Bootstrap technique; Central Europe; Czech Republic; Ensemble trees; Logistic regressions; Precipitation threshold; Probability forecasts; Radar reflectivities; Forecasting; bootstrapping; ensemble forecasting; nowcasting; precipitation (climatology); probability; radar; Czech Republic
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/162192
作者单位	Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bocni II, 1401, Prague, 141 31, Czech Republic
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pop L.,Sokol Z.,Minářová J.. Nowcasting of the probability of accumulated precipitation based on the radar echo extrapolation[J],2019,216.
APA	Pop L.,Sokol Z.,&Minářová J..(2019).Nowcasting of the probability of accumulated precipitation based on the radar echo extrapolation.Atmospheric Research,216.
MLA	Pop L.,et al."Nowcasting of the probability of accumulated precipitation based on the radar echo extrapolation".Atmospheric Research 216(2019).