气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future projections of extreme temperature events in different sub-regions of China

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.10.019
	Future projections of extreme temperature events in different sub-regions of China
	Li L.; Yao N.; Li Y.; Liu D.L.; Wang B.; Ayantobo O.O.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0169-8095
起始页码	150
结束页码	164
卷号	217
英文摘要	Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme temperature events is critical to evaluate their influences in nature. Out of 28 general circulation models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5, eight GCMs were selected to simulate changes of the six extreme temperature indices (ETIs) in China: warmest daily maximum temperature-TXx, warm days-TX90p, tropical days-TD30, coldest daily minimum temperature-TNn, cool nights-TN10p and frost days-FD0. Statistically downscaled daily maximum and minimum temperatures at 552 sites under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used. The modified Mann-Kendall method was used to detect the trends and their significances in ETIs. The Morlet wavelet basic function was used to investigate the main and quasi periods of the ETIs over the historical (1961–2000) and future (2001−2100) time stages. The results showed that FD0 and TN10p had decreasing trends, and TNn had increasing trends at more sites than decreasing trends. However, TD30, TX90p and TXx showed consistently increasing trends both during historical and future periods under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. More sites had significant trends in the 6 ETIs during 2001–2100. The decreases in FD0 and TN10p reached 31.4 and 27.4 days during 2021–2060 and 42.6 and 29.7 days during 2061–2100, respectively. The increases in TNn, TD30, TX90p, and TXx reached 8.7 °C, 45.3 days, 41.6 days and 5.7 °C over 2021–2060 and 7.2 °C, 65.6 days, 62.4 days and 6.4 °C over 2061–2100, respectively. With respect to the averaged values for 552 sites, the primary periods of FD0, TN10p, TNn, TD30, TX90p and TXx were 8, 8, 8, 3, 3 and 10 years from 1961 to 2017 and 4, 4, 4, 2, 2 and 3 years under the RCP4.5 scenario from 2021 to 2100, respectively, whereas only TN10p and TNn had the 2- and 4-year periods under the RCP8.5 scenario. Differently from the averaged ETIs over China, more sites had longer periods from 1961 to 2017 to 2021–2100 under the RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 scenarios. This outcome meant that many sites had smaller fluctuations and less periodicity from 2021 to 2100 than from 1961 to 2017. The spatiotemporal changes in the ETIs may lead to the shifting of cultivation, variety adaptability and production for main crops in different sub-regions or climate zones. This research provides projected characteristics of extreme temperature events across China. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Extreme temperature index; GCM; Mann-Kendall test; Representative concentration pathways; Statistical downscaling; Wavelet analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Earth atmosphere; Wavelet analysis; Extreme temperature events; Extreme temperature indices; General circulation model; Mann-Kendall test; Maximum and minimum temperatures; Representative concentration pathways; Spatiotemporal evolution; Statistical downscaling; Meteorology; downscaling; extreme event; future prospect; general circulation model; statistical analysis; temperature gradient; wavelet analysis; China
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/162136
作者单位	College of Water Resources and Architecture Engineering, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; Institute of Water Saving Agriculture in Arid Areas of China, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; Key Lab of Agricultural Water and Soil Engineering of Education Ministry, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling, 712100, China; NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li L.,Yao N.,Li Y.,et al. Future projections of extreme temperature events in different sub-regions of China[J],2019,217.
APA	Li L.,Yao N.,Li Y.,Liu D.L.,Wang B.,&Ayantobo O.O..(2019).Future projections of extreme temperature events in different sub-regions of China.Atmospheric Research,217.
MLA	Li L.,et al."Future projections of extreme temperature events in different sub-regions of China".Atmospheric Research 217(2019).