气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Granger causal predictors for maximum rainfall in Australia

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.11.006
	Granger causal predictors for maximum rainfall in Australia
	Kamruzzaman M.; Beecham S.; Metcalfe A.V.; Cai W.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0169-8095
起始页码	1
结束页码	11
卷号	218
英文摘要	We describe a novel approach for investigating changes in regional rainfall patterns from short records and for identifying potential causes of these changes. We focus on the predictive potential of past values of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and their interactions on rainfall in South Australia and Western Australia. A measure of annual rainfall anomaly based on a signed version of the Hotelling statistic, is proposed. This modified statistic is calculated for rainfall anomaly at 7 sites in South Australia over a period of 59 years. Various plots of rainfall anomaly provide evidence of outlying values and increasing variability over the period. There is no evidence that the rainfall anomaly is associated with past values of temperature or the Southern Oscillation Index or their interaction. In contrast, there is evidence that past values of the IOD have Granger predictive value for rainfall and this is evidence for a Granger causal relationship. A physical explanation for the influence of the IOD on rainfall in South and West Australia is presented. © 2018
英文关键词	Granger causal; Indian Ocean Dipole; Rainfall anomaly; Southern Oscillation Index
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Causal relationships; Granger causal; Indian Ocean dipole; Indian ocean dipoles; Predictive values; Rainfall anomaly; Rainfall patterns; Southern oscillation index; Rain; air temperature; anomaly; Granger causality test; Indian Ocean Dipole; rainfall; Southern Oscillation; Australia; South Australia; Western Australia
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/162109
作者单位	Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095, Australia; School of Mathematical Science, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia; CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kamruzzaman M.,Beecham S.,Metcalfe A.V.,et al. Granger causal predictors for maximum rainfall in Australia[J],2019,218.
APA	Kamruzzaman M.,Beecham S.,Metcalfe A.V.,&Cai W..(2019).Granger causal predictors for maximum rainfall in Australia.Atmospheric Research,218.
MLA	Kamruzzaman M.,et al."Granger causal predictors for maximum rainfall in Australia".Atmospheric Research 218(2019).