气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sub-daily temporal reconstruction of extreme precipitation events using NWP model simulations

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.019
	Sub-daily temporal reconstruction of extreme precipitation events using NWP model simulations
	Bližňák V.; Kašpar M.; Müller M.; Zacharov P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0169-8095
起始页码	65
结束页码	80
卷号	224
英文摘要	An alternative correction procedure for a posteriori improvement of quantitative precipitation re-forecast generated by a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model COSMO in a high temporal resolution is presented. The main motivation is to provide reliable precipitation re-analyses from the NWP model, which will enable a more detailed analysis of historical extreme precipitation events (EPEs). The procedure adjusts the model precipitation sums by daily rain gauge measurements and corrects the localization of 10-min model precipitation totals based on the highest correlation coefficient between the 24-h model and observed precipitation sums. The results show that the NWP model COSMO usually well predicts the occurrence of EPEs, but its spatial localization is not always accurate. This is usually a case of more localized convective precipitation, where the impact of the applied correction procedure is the most evident. A detailed temporal analysis including a calculation of correlation coefficient and Fractions Skill Score also confirmed that the re-forecast improvement is observed in a time when the highest precipitation within a given EPE occurs. Beyond this time, the effect of the correction is insignificant. In contrast, the impact of the correction is rather negligible in case the NWP model correctly locates precipitation re-forecast because uncorrected and corrected re-forecasts are very similar. Although the results stem from the seven selected EPEs only, the study provides a general performance of the proposed method and indicates that the method can be applied to historical EPEs, for which no weather radar data are available, to obtain their more accurate sub-daily temporal reconstruction. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Czech Republic; Extreme precipitation; NWP model; Temporal reconstruction; Verification
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Meteorological radar; Rain gages; Verification; Weather forecasting; Convective precipitation; Correlation coefficient; Czech Republic; Extreme precipitation; Extreme precipitation events; High temporal resolution; Numerical weather prediction models; NWP model; Rain; correlation; extreme event; numerical method; precipitation intensity; temporal variation; weather forecasting; Czech Republic
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/162013
作者单位	Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS, Department of Meteorology, Bočni II 1401, Prague 4, 141 31, Czech Republic; Charles University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Albertov 6, Prague 2, 128 43, Czech Republic
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bližňák V.,Kašpar M.,Müller M.,et al. Sub-daily temporal reconstruction of extreme precipitation events using NWP model simulations[J],2019,224.
APA	Bližňák V.,Kašpar M.,Müller M.,&Zacharov P..(2019).Sub-daily temporal reconstruction of extreme precipitation events using NWP model simulations.Atmospheric Research,224.
MLA	Bližňák V.,et al."Sub-daily temporal reconstruction of extreme precipitation events using NWP model simulations".Atmospheric Research 224(2019).