气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global evidence for ultraviolet radiation decreasing COVID-19 growth rates

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2012370118
	Global evidence for ultraviolet radiation decreasing COVID-19 growth rates
	Carleton T.; Cornetet J.; Huybers P.; Meng K.C.; Proctor J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:1
英文摘要	With nearly every country combating the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), there is a need to understand how local environmental conditions may modify transmission. To date, quantifying seasonality of the disease has been limited by scarce data and the difficulty of isolating climatological variables from other drivers of transmission in observational studies. We combine a spatially resolved dataset of confirmed COVID-19 cases, composed of 3,235 regions across 173 countries, with local environmental conditions and a statistical approach developed to quantify causal effects of environmental conditions in observational data settings. We find that ultraviolet (UV) radiation has a statistically significant effect on daily COVID-19 growth rates: a SD increase in UV lowers the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases by ∼1 percentage point over the subsequent 2.5 wk, relative to an average in-sample growth rate of 13.2%. The time pattern of lagged effects peaks 9 to 11 d after UV exposure, consistent with the combined timescale of incubation, testing, and reporting. Cumulative effects of temperature and humidity are not statistically significant. Simulations illustrate how seasonal changes in UV have influenced regional patterns of COVID-19 growth rates from January to June, indicating that UV has a substantially smaller effect on the spread of the disease than social distancing policies. Furthermore, total COVID-19 seasonality has indeterminate sign for most regions during this period due to uncertain effects of other environmental variables. Our findings indicate UV exposure influences COVID-19 cases, but a comprehensive understanding of seasonality awaits further analysis. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	COVID-19; Seasonality; Ultraviolet radiation
语种	英语
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/161101
作者单位	Carleton, T., Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-3151, United States; Cornetet, J., Département de Sciences Sociales, École Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay, Cachan Cedex, 94235, France; Huybers, P., Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States; Meng, K.C., Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-3151, United States, Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-3151, United States, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States; Proctor, J., Center for the Environment, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States, Data Science Initiative, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Carleton T.,Cornetet J.,Huybers P.,et al. Global evidence for ultraviolet radiation decreasing COVID-19 growth rates[J],2020,118(1).
APA	Carleton T.,Cornetet J.,Huybers P.,Meng K.C.,&Proctor J..(2020).Global evidence for ultraviolet radiation decreasing COVID-19 growth rates.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(1).
MLA	Carleton T.,et al."Global evidence for ultraviolet radiation decreasing COVID-19 growth rates".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.1(2020).