气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1914829117
	Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict
	Roche K.R.; Müller-Itten M.; Dralle D.N.; Bolster D.; Müller M.F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	1935
结束页码	1940
卷号	117 期号:4
英文摘要	A growing empirical literature associates climate anomalies with increased risk of violent conflict. This association has been portrayed as a bellwether of future societal instability as the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are predicted to increase. This paper investigates the theoretical foundation of this claim. A seminal microeconomic model of opportunity costs-a mechanism often thought to drive climate-conflict relationships- is extended by considering realistic changes in the distribution of climate-dependent agricultural income. Results advise caution in using empirical associations between short-run climate anomalies and conflicts to predict the effect of sustained shifts in climate regimes: Although war occurs in bad years, conflict may decrease if agents expect more frequent bad years. Theory suggests a nonmonotonic relation between climate variability and conflict that emerges as agents adapt and adjust their behavior to the new income distribution. We identify 3 measurable statistics of the income distribution that are each unambiguously associated with conflict likelihood. Jointly, these statistics offer a unique signature to distinguish opportunity costs from competing mechanisms that may relate climate anomalies to conflict. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Agriculture; Income shock; Microeconomic theory; Rainfall; Violence
语种	英语
scopus关键词	rain; adaptation; agriculture; Article; climate change; climate resilience; conflict management; controlled study; cost of conflict; environmental policy; income; priority journal; process optimization; quantitative analysis; seasonal variation; crop; economic development; economics; growth, development and aging; human; risk factor; theoretical model; violence; war; water supply; Armed Conflicts; Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural; Economic Development; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Risk Factors; Violence; Water Supply
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/161072
作者单位	Roche, K.R., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, United States; Müller-Itten, M., Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, United States; Dralle, D.N., Department of Geology, California State University, Sacramento, CA 95819, United States; Bolster, D., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, United States; Müller, M.F., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Roche K.R.,Müller-Itten M.,Dralle D.N.,et al. Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict[J],2020,117(4).
APA	Roche K.R.,Müller-Itten M.,Dralle D.N.,Bolster D.,&Müller M.F..(2020).Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(4).
MLA	Roche K.R.,et al."Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.4(2020).