气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1912206117
	Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives
	Schneider K.; van der Werf W.; Cendoya M.; Mourits M.; Navas-Cortés J.A.; Vicent A.; Lansink A.O.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	9250
结束页码	9259
卷号	117 期号:17
英文摘要	Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Perennials; Pest risk assessment; Radial range expansion; Simulation; Species distribution models
语种	英语
scopus关键词	olive oil; Article; biological trait; climate; controlled study; economic aspect; nonhuman; olive; plant disease; plant yield; priority journal; simulation; Xylella fastidiosa; Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca; economic model; Greece; Italy; metabolism; microbiology; olive tree; pathogenicity; Spain; theoretical model; Xylella; Greece; Italy; Models, Economic; Models, Theoretical; Olea; Plant Diseases; Spain; Xylella
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160972
作者单位	Schneider, K., Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, 6700 EW, Netherlands; van der Werf, W., Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, 6700 AK, Netherlands; Cendoya, M., Centre de Protecció Vegetal i Biotecnología, Institut Valencià d’Investigacions Agràries, Moncada (Valencia), 46113, Spain; Mourits, M., Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, 6700 EW, Netherlands; Navas-Cortés, J.A., Institute for Sustainable Agriculture, Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Córdoba, 14004, Spain; Vicent, A., Centre de Protecció Vegetal i Biotecnología, Institut Valencià d’Investigacions Agràries, Moncada (Valencia), 46113, Spain; Lansink, A.O., Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, 6700 EW, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Schneider K.,van der Werf W.,Cendoya M.,et al. Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives[J],2020,117(17).
APA	Schneider K..,van der Werf W..,Cendoya M..,Mourits M..,Navas-Cortés J.A..,...&Lansink A.O..(2020).Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(17).
MLA	Schneider K.,et al."Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.17(2020).