气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2004978117
	Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures
	Gatto M.; Bertuzzo E.; Mari L.; Miccoli S.; Carraro L.; Casagrandi R.; Rinaldo A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	10484
结束页码	10491
卷号	117 期号:19
英文摘要	The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions, based on modeling of the unfolding epidemic. We test modeling options of the spatially explicit type, suggested by the wave of infections spreading from the initial foci to the rest of Italy. We estimate parameters of a metacommunity Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered (SEIR)like transmission model that includes a network of 107 provinces connected by mobility at high resolution, and the critical contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We estimate a generalized reproduction number (R0 = 3.60 [3.49 to 3.84]), the spectral radius of a suitable next-generation matrix that measures the potential spread in the absence of containment interventions. The model includes the implementation of progressive restrictions after the first case confirmed in Italy (February 21, 2020) and runs until March 25, 2020. We account for uncertainty in epidemiological reporting, and time dependence of human mobility matrices and awareness-dependent exposure probabilities. We draw scenarios of different containment measures and their impact. Results suggest that the sequence of restrictions posed to mobility and human-to-human interactions have reduced transmission by 45% (42 to 49%). Averted hospitalizations are measured by running scenarios obtained by selectively relaxing the imposed restrictions and total about 200,000 individuals (as of March 25, 2020). Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, we conclude that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Disease outbreak scenarios; SARS-CoV-2; SEIR models; Social contact restrictions; Spatially explicit epidemiology
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Article; computer simulation; contact examination; coronavirus disease 2019; disease control; disease course; disease re-emergence; disease severity assessment; disease simulation; disease transmission; emergency care; emergency health service; environmental exposure; epidemic; epidemiological data; evolution; health care planning; health care policy; hospitalization; human; infection control; Italy; Markov chain Monte Carlo method; mathematical model; mathematical parameters; metacommunity Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered like transmission model; patient mobility; population dynamics; priority journal; probability; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; social behavior; statistical analysis; basic reproduction number; Betacoronavirus; communicable disease control; Coronavirus infection; pandemic; procedures; theoretical model; virus pneumonia; Basic Reproduction Number; Betacoronavirus; Communicable Disease Control; Coronavirus Infections; Hospitalization; Humans; Italy; Models, Theoretical; Pandemics; Pneumonia, Viral
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160963
作者单位	Gatto, M., Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, 20133, Italy; Bertuzzo, E., Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica, Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia, Venezia-Mestre, 30172, Italy, Science of Complexity Research Unit, European Centre for Living Technology, Venice, 30123, Italy; Mari, L., Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, 20133, Italy; Miccoli, S., Dipartimento di Meccanica, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, 20133, Italy; Carraro, L., Department of Aquatic Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, 8600, Switzerland, Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, 8057, Switzerland; Casagrandi, R., Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, 20133, Italy; Rinaldo, A., Laboratory of Ecohydrology, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, 1015, Switzer...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gatto M.,Bertuzzo E.,Mari L.,et al. Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures[J],2020,117(19).
APA	Gatto M..,Bertuzzo E..,Mari L..,Miccoli S..,Carraro L..,...&Rinaldo A..(2020).Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(19).
MLA	Gatto M.,et al."Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.19(2020).