气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Rainfall anomalies are a significant driver of cropland expansion

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1910719117
	Rainfall anomalies are a significant driver of cropland expansion
	Zaveri E.; Russ J.; Damania R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	10225
结束页码	10233
卷号	117 期号:19
英文摘要	Rainfall anomalies have long occupied center stage in policy discussions, and understanding their impacts on agricultural production has become more important as climate change intensifies. However, the global scale of rainfall-induced productivity shocks on changes in cropland is yet to be quantified. Here we identify how rainfall anomalies impact observed patterns of cropped areas at a global scale by leveraging locally determined unexpected variations in rainfall. Employing disaggregated panel data at the grid level, we find that repeated dry anomalies lead to an increase in cropland expansion in developing countries. No discernible effects are detected from repeated wet events. That these effects are confined to developing countries, which are often dominated by small-holder farmers, implies that they may be in response to reduced yields. The estimates suggest that overall, in developing countries, dry anomalies account for ∼9% of the rate of cropland expansion over the past two decades. We perform several tests to check for consistency and robustness of this relationship. First, using forest cover as an alternative measure, we find comparable reductions in forest cover in the same regions where cropland expands due to repeated dry anomalies. Second, we test the relationship in regions where yields are buffered from rainfall anomalies by irrigation infrastructure and find that the impact on cropland expansion is mitigated, providing further support for our results. Since cropland expansion is a significant driver of deforestation, these results have important implications for forest loss and environmental services. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Agricultural expansion; Dams; Deforestation; Land use change; Rainfall variability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	rain; Article; climate change; crop production; cropland; deforestation; developing country; environmental protection; forest; irrigation (agriculture); land use; priority journal
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160959
作者单位	Zaveri, E., Water Global Practice, World Bank, Washington, DC 20433, United States; Russ, J., Water Global Practice, World Bank, Washington, DC 20433, United States; Damania, R., Water Global Practice, World Bank, Washington, DC 20433, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zaveri E.,Russ J.,Damania R.. Rainfall anomalies are a significant driver of cropland expansion[J],2020,117(19).
APA	Zaveri E.,Russ J.,&Damania R..(2020).Rainfall anomalies are a significant driver of cropland expansion.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(19).
MLA	Zaveri E.,et al."Rainfall anomalies are a significant driver of cropland expansion".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.19(2020).