气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1922500117
	Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones
	Murakami H.; Delworth T.L.; Cooke W.F.; Zhao M.; Xiang B.; Hsu P.-C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	10706
结束页码	10714
卷号	117 期号:20
英文摘要	Owing to the limited length of observed tropical cyclone data and the effects of multidecadal internal variability, it has been a challenge to detect trends in tropical cyclone activity on a global scale. However, there is a distinct spatial pattern of the trends in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence on a global scale since 1980, with substantial decreases in the southern Indian Ocean and western North Pacific and increases in the North Atlantic and central Pacific. Here, using a suite of high-resolution dynamical model experiments, we show that the observed spatial pattern of trends is very unlikely to be explained entirely by underlying multidecadal internal variability; rather, external forcing such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, and volcanic eruptions likely played an important role. This study demonstrates that a climatic change in terms of the global spatial distribution of tropical cyclones has already emerged in observations and may in part be attributable to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Detection and attribution; Large-ensemble simulations; Spatial pattern; Tropical cyclones
语种	英语
scopus关键词	aerosol; article; carbon footprint; climate change; hurricane; simulation; volcano
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160952
作者单位	Murakami, H., Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, United States, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0052, Japan; Delworth, T.L., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Cooke, W.F., Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, United States, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; Zhao, M., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United Stat...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Murakami H.,Delworth T.L.,Cooke W.F.,et al. Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones[J],2020,117(20).
APA	Murakami H.,Delworth T.L.,Cooke W.F.,Zhao M.,Xiang B.,&Hsu P.-C..(2020).Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(20).
MLA	Murakami H.,et al."Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.20(2020).