气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Greater flood risks in response to slowdown of tropical cyclones over the coast of China

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1918987117
	Greater flood risks in response to slowdown of tropical cyclones over the coast of China
	Lai Y.; Li J.; Gu X.; Chen Y.D.; Kong D.; Gan T.Y.; Liu M.; Li Q.; Wu G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	14751
结束页码	14755
卷号	117 期号:26
英文摘要	The total amount of rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) over a given region is proportional to rainfall intensity and the inverse of TC translation speed. Although the contributions of increase in rainfall intensity to larger total rainfall amounts have been extensively examined, observational evidence on impacts of the recently reported but still debated long-term slowdown of TCs on local total rainfall amounts is limited. Here, we find that both observations and the multimodel ensemble of Global Climate Model simulations show a significant slowdown of TCs (11% in observations and 10% in simulations, respectively) from 1961 to 2017 over the coast of China. Our analyses of long-term observations find a significant increase in the 90th percentile of TC-induced local rainfall totals and significant inverse relationships between TC translation speeds and local rainfall totals over the study period. The study also shows that TCs with lower translation speed and higher rainfall totals occurred more frequently after 1990 in the Pearl River Delta in southern China. Our probability analysis indicates that slow-moving TCs are more likely to generate heavy rainfall of higher total amounts than fast-moving TCs. Our findings suggest that slowdown of TCs tends to elevate local rainfall totals and thus impose greater flood risks at the regional scale. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Flood risks; Local rainfall totals; Translation speed; Tropical cyclones
语种	英语
scopus关键词	rain; Article; calculation; China; controlled study; evolutionary adaptation; flooding; global climate; hurricane; priority journal; probability; process model; risk assessment; seashore; tropic climate
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160894
作者单位	Lai, Y., Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong, Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Great Bay Area, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, 518060, China; Li, J., Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong; Gu, X., Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Chen, Y.D., School of Humanities and Social Science, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, 518172, Hong Kong, Department of Geography and Resource Management, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Kong, D., Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Gan, T.Y., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G2W2, Canada; Liu, M., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; Li, Q., Ke...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lai Y.,Li J.,Gu X.,et al. Greater flood risks in response to slowdown of tropical cyclones over the coast of China[J],2020,117(26).
APA	Lai Y..,Li J..,Gu X..,Chen Y.D..,Kong D..,...&Wu G..(2020).Greater flood risks in response to slowdown of tropical cyclones over the coast of China.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(26).
MLA	Lai Y.,et al."Greater flood risks in response to slowdown of tropical cyclones over the coast of China".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.26(2020).