气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070)

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2001403117
	Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070)
	Borrelli P.; Robinson D.A.; Panagos P.; Lugato E.; Yang J.E.; Alewell C.; Wuepper D.; Montanarella L.; Ballabio C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	21994
结束页码	22001
卷号	117 期号:36
英文摘要	Soil erosion is a major global soil degradation threat to land, freshwater, and oceans. Wind and water are the major drivers, with water erosion over land being the focus of this work; excluding gullying and river bank erosion. Improving knowledge of the probable future rates of soil erosion, accelerated by human activity, is important both for policy makers engaged in land use decision-making and for earth-system modelers seeking to reduce uncertainty on global predictions. Here we predict future rates of erosion by modeling change in potential global soil erosion by water using three alternative (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. Global predictions rely on a high spatial resolution Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE)-based semiempirical modeling approach (GloSEM). The baseline model (2015) predicts global potential soil erosion rates of 43þ-9.27 Pg yr−1, with current conservation agriculture (CA) practices estimated to reduce this by ∼5%. Our future scenarios suggest that socioeconomic developments impacting land use will either decrease (SSP1-RCP2.6–10%) or increase (SSP2-RCP4.5 +2%, SSP5-RCP8.5 +10%) water erosion by 2070. Climate projections, for all global dynamics scenarios, indicate a trend, moving toward a more vigorous hydrological cycle, which could increase global water erosion (+30 to +66%). Accepting some degrees of uncertainty, our findings provide insights into how possible future socioeconomic development will affect soil erosion by water using a globally consistent approach. This preliminary evidence seeks to inform efforts such as those of the United Nations to assess global soil erosion and inform decision makers developing national strategies for soil conservation. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	rain; water; water; Article; climate change; cropland; ecosystem restoration; environmental impact assessment; environmental monitoring; environmental protection; greenhouse gas; human; human activities; hydrology; land use; priority journal; soil erosion; sustainable agriculture; trend study; chemistry; economics; environmental protection; landslide; socioeconomics; soil; Climate Change; Conservation of Natural Resources; Environmental Monitoring; Human Activities; Humans; Landslides; Socioeconomic Factors; Soil; Water
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160811
作者单位	Borrelli, P., Environmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Basel, 4056, Switzerland, Department of Biological Environment, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, 24341, South Korea; Robinson, D.A., UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, LL57 2UW, United Kingdom; Panagos, P., European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VR), 21027, Italy; Lugato, E., European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VR), 21027, Italy; Yang, J.E., Department of Biological Environment, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, 24341, South Korea; Alewell, C., Environmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Basel, 4056, Switzerland; Wuepper, D., Agricultural Economics and Policy, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland; Montanarella, L., European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VR), 21027, Italy; Ballabio, C., European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VR), 21027, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Borrelli P.,Robinson D.A.,Panagos P.,et al. Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070)[J],2020,117(36).
APA	Borrelli P..,Robinson D.A..,Panagos P..,Lugato E..,Yang J.E..,...&Ballabio C..(2020).Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070).Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(36).
MLA	Borrelli P.,et al."Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070)".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.36(2020).