气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2008383117
	Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters
	Mrad A.; Katul G.G.; Levia D.F.; Guswa A.J.; Boyer E.W.; Bruen M.; Carlyle-Moses D.E.; Coyte R.; Creed I.F.; Van De Giesen N.; Grasso D.; Hannah D.M.; Hudson J.E.; Humphrey V.; Iida S.; Jackson R.B.; Kumagai T.; Llorens P.; Michalzik B.; Nanko K.; Peters C.A.; Selker J.S.; Tetzlaff D.; Zalewski M.; Scanlon B.R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	26145
结束页码	26150
卷号	117 期号:42
英文摘要	Irrigated agriculture contributes 40% of total global food production. In the US High Plains, which produces more than 50 million tons per year of grain, as much as 90% of irrigation originates from groundwater resources, including the Ogallala aquifer. In parts of the High Plains, groundwater resources are being depleted so rapidly that they are considered nonrenewable, compromising food security. When groundwater becomes scarce, groundwater withdrawals peak, causing a subsequent peak in crop production. Previous descriptions of finite natural resource depletion have utilized the Hubbert curve. By coupling the dynamics of groundwater pumping, recharge, and crop production, Hubbert-like curves emerge, responding to the linked variations in groundwater pumping and grain production. On a state level, this approach predicted when groundwater withdrawal and grain production peaked and the lag between them. The lags increased with the adoption of efficient irrigation practices and higher recharge rates. Results indicate that, in Texas, withdrawals peaked in 1966, followed by a peak in grain production 9 y later. After better irrigation technologies were adopted, the lag increased to 15 y from 1997 to 2012. In Kansas, where these technologies were employed concurrently with the rise of irrigated grain production, this lag was predicted to be 24 y starting in 1994. In Nebraska, grain production is projected to continue rising through 2050 because of high recharge rates. While Texas and Nebraska had equal irrigated output in 1975, by 2050, it is projected that Nebraska will have almost 10 times the groundwater-based production of Texas. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Crop production; Groundwater; Hubbert curve; Ogallala aquifer; Peak water
语种	英语
scopus关键词	ground water; surface water; ground water; aquifer; Article; crop production; energy cost; forecasting; grain; irrigation (agriculture); Kansas; Nebraska; plant water use; priority journal; sustainable agriculture; Texas; United States; water availability; water conservation; water management; water supply; crop; food grain; growth, development and aging; irrigation (agriculture); procedures; theoretical model; Agricultural Irrigation; Conservation of Water Resources; Crops, Agricultural; Edible Grain; Groundwater; Models, Theoretical; Water Resources; Water Supply
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160762
作者单位	Mrad, A., Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, United States; Katul, G.G., Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, United States; Levia, D.F., Department of Geography & Spatial Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, United States, Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, United States; Guswa, A.J., Picker Engineering Program, Smith College, Northampton, MA 01063, United States; Boyer, E.W., Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16803, United States; Bruen, M., School of Civil Engineering, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland; Carlyle-Moses, D.E., Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Thompson Rivers University, Kamloops, BC V2C 0C8, Canada; Coyte, R., Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, United States; Creed, I.F., School of Environment and Sustainability, University ...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mrad A.,Katul G.G.,Levia D.F.,et al. Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters[J],2020,117(42).
APA	Mrad A..,Katul G.G..,Levia D.F..,Guswa A.J..,Boyer E.W..,...&Scanlon B.R..(2020).Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(42).
MLA	Mrad A.,et al."Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.42(2020).