气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Effect of border policy on exposure and vulnerability to climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2007597117
	Effect of border policy on exposure and vulnerability to climate change
	Benveniste H.; Oppenheimer M.; Fleurbaey M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	26692
结束页码	26702
卷号	117 期号:43
英文摘要	Migration may be increasingly used as adaptation strategy to reduce populations’ exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. Conversely, either through lack of information about risks at destinations or as outcome of balancing those risks, people might move to locations where they are more exposed to climatic risk than at their origin locations. Climate damages, whose quantification informs understanding of societal exposure and vulnerability, are typically computed by integrated assessment models (IAMs). Yet migration is hardly included in commonly used IAMs. In this paper, we investigate how border policy, a key influence on international migration flows, affects exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. To this aim, we include international migration and remittance dynamics explicitly in a widely used IAM employing a gravity model and compare four scenarios of border policy. We then quantify effects of border policy on population distribution, income, exposure, and vulnerability and of CO2 emissions and temperature increase for the period 2015 to 2100 along five scenarios of future development and climate change. We find that most migrants tend to move to areas where they are less exposed and vulnerable than where they came from. Our results confirm that migration and remittances can positively contribute to climate change adaptation. Crucially, our findings imply that restrictive border policy can increase exposure and vulnerability, by trapping people in areas where they are more exposed and vulnerable than where they would otherwise migrate. These results suggest that the consequences of migration policy should play a greater part in deliberations about international climate policy. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Border policy; Climate change impacts; Integrated assessment models; Migration; Shared socioeconomic pathways
语种	英语
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160749
作者单位	Benveniste, H., School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Oppenheimer, M., School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States, Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Fleurbaey, M., School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States, University Center for Human Values, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States, Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques, Paris School of Economics/CNRS, Paris, 75014, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Benveniste H.,Oppenheimer M.,Fleurbaey M.. Effect of border policy on exposure and vulnerability to climate change[J],2020,117(43).
APA	Benveniste H.,Oppenheimer M.,&Fleurbaey M..(2020).Effect of border policy on exposure and vulnerability to climate change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(43).
MLA	Benveniste H.,et al."Effect of border policy on exposure and vulnerability to climate change".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.43(2020).