气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonality and uncertainty in global COVID-19 growth rates

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2008590117
	Seasonality and uncertainty in global COVID-19 growth rates
	Merow C.; Urban M.C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	27456
结束页码	27464
卷号	117 期号:44
英文摘要	The virus causing COVID-19 has spread rapidly worldwide and threatens millions of lives. It remains unknown, as of April 2020, whether summer weather will reduce its spread, thereby alleviating strains on hospitals and providing time for vaccine development. Early insights from laboratory studies and research on related viruses predicted that COVID-19 would decline with higher temperatures, humidity, and ultraviolet (UV) light. Using current, fine-scaled weather data and global reports of infections, we develop a model that explains 36% of the variation in maximum COVID-19 growth rates based on weather and demography (17%) and country-specific effects (19%). UV light is most strongly associated with lower COVID-19 growth. Projections suggest that, without intervention, COVID-19 will decrease temporarily during summer, rebound by autumn, and peak next winter. Validation based on data from May and June 2020 confirms the generality of the climate signal detected. However, uncertainty remains high, and the probability of weekly doubling rates remains >20% throughout summer in the absence of social interventions. Consequently, aggressive interventions will likely be needed despite seasonal trends. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate; Pandemic; SARS-CoV-2; UV light \| humidity
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Article; autumn; Bayes theorem; climate change; coronavirus disease 2019; demography; disease association; environmental temperature; growth rate; human; humidity; infection risk; infection sensitivity; nonhuman; pandemic; prediction; priority journal; seasonal variation; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; statistical model; summer; ultraviolet radiation; uncertainty; weather; winter; Betacoronavirus; Coronavirus infection; heat; season; virus pneumonia; Betacoronavirus; Coronavirus Infections; Hot Temperature; Humans; Humidity; Models, Statistical; Pandemics; Pneumonia, Viral; Seasons; Ultraviolet Rays; Uncertainty
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160744
作者单位	Merow, C., Eversource Energy Center, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06268, United States, Center of Biological Risk, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06268, United States, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06268, United States; Urban, M.C., Center of Biological Risk, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06268, United States, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06268, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Merow C.,Urban M.C.. Seasonality and uncertainty in global COVID-19 growth rates[J],2020,117(44).
APA	Merow C.,&Urban M.C..(2020).Seasonality and uncertainty in global COVID-19 growth rates.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(44).
MLA	Merow C.,et al."Seasonality and uncertainty in global COVID-19 growth rates".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.44(2020).