气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increasing risk of another Cape Town "day Zero" drought in the 21st century

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2009144117
	Increasing risk of another Cape Town "day Zero" drought in the 21st century
	Pascale S.; Kapnick S.B.; Delworth T.L.; Cooke W.F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	29495
结束页码	29503
卷号	117 期号:47
英文摘要	Three consecutive dry winters (2015-2017) in southwestern South Africa (SSA) resulted in the Cape Town "Day Zero" drought in early 2018. The contribution of anthropogenic global warming to this prolonged rainfall deficit has previously been evaluated through observations and climate models. However, model adequacy and insufficient horizontal resolution make it difficult to precisely quantify the changing likelihood of extreme droughts, given the small regional scale. Here, we use a high-resolution large ensemble to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the probability of occurrence of multiyear SSA rainfall deficits in past and future decades. We find that anthropogenic climate change increased the likelihood of the 2015-2017 rainfall deficit by a factor of five to six. The probability of such an event will increase from 0.7 to 25% by the year 2100 under an intermediate-emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 [SSP2-4.5]) and to 80% under a highemission scenario (SSP5-8.5). These results highlight the strong sensitivity of the drought risk in SSA to future anthropogenic emissions. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate extremes; Climate-change detection; Drought; Event attribution; Large ensemble simulations
语种	英语
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160707
作者单位	Pascale, S., Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States, Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Kapnick, S.B., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; Delworth, T.L., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; Cooke, W.F., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pascale S.,Kapnick S.B.,Delworth T.L.,et al. Increasing risk of another Cape Town "day Zero" drought in the 21st century[J],2020,117(47).
APA	Pascale S.,Kapnick S.B.,Delworth T.L.,&Cooke W.F..(2020).Increasing risk of another Cape Town "day Zero" drought in the 21st century.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(47).
MLA	Pascale S.,et al."Increasing risk of another Cape Town "day Zero" drought in the 21st century".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.47(2020).